PLAYOFF POSSIBILITIES ABOUND WITH ONE WEEK TO GO; ONLY ONE AAA SPOT STILL CONTESTED AS 10 TEAMS STILL ALIVE FOR 6 AA INVITATIONS

Posted: Thursday, June 5, 2008

By: Jared Neumeier

With but one weekend left and 22 of the 23 RMFL teams involved, almost nothing is settled.

 

What do we know for sure?

 

Teams mathematically eliminated:

 

Snake River

Uintah Basin

Salt Lake

Bear River

Bitterroot

Davis

 

That’s it. 10 of 12 AA teams are still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, however, only 7 of the 11 AAA teams are alive for the 6 playoff positions at the leagues uppermost level.

 

Several teams like Eastern Idaho, Utah Wolverines and Utah Shock are in the drivers seat and this will be the year that the phrase “Strength of Schedule” gets bandied about the most.  With so much parity and competition around the league, settling the issue of “who’s the better team” will come down more and more to, “who had the better opponents”?  In the RMFL, won loss record counts first, then head to head battles.  However, in the event that head to head battles cannot separate a 3 or 4 or 5-way tie in which all of the teams did not play each other, it comes down to who achieved their record down the most difficult road?

 

Lets get right to it.

 

I’ll fist start with an analysis of the AA, which is somewhat more complicated with significantly more teams “in play” than the AAA; however, certainly, just as interesting.

 

The Gladiators beating Boise on May 31st really affected these potential brackets as the Speed, who had the inside track to #1 with a better Strength of Schedule (SOS) than the Eastern Idaho Lionz, dropped to #2 and could actually fall as far as #5 if they cannot hold home serve against the desperate Helena Titans this Saturday (and all of the planets align).  The Lionz merely have to win at home against the expansion Srippling Warriorz, against the ropes in their own right, to hold on to the #1 seed throughout.

 

The AAA starts with a  simple battle for #1 and then a real shuffle for the #3 thru #6 positions.

 

Of course, in the RMFL, playoff seeding means a lot more than how tough your opponent is you may have to play, it might be the difference of staying at home… or a very long road trip to keep alive.

 

But, enough generalities, lets take a team-by-team look at each teams’ chances.

 

Note: if you notice discrepancies between the written evaluations and the charts below, go with the chart.  Inherent in both the Chart and the verbiage are some fairly reasonable assumptions regarding the ultimate Strength of Schedule (SOS) results.  I’d take these assumptions as about 98% accurate.  The final evaluations will be done Saturday night and the playoff teams will know for certain by Sunday morning.  This article is meant to be a very accurate guideline, not necessarily the official word on the final seeding.

 

AA

 

EASTERN IDAHO LIONZ (6-1):  Became the only 1 loss team after the Speed were surprised at Great Falls last week.  They only have to beat the Warriorz at home to hold on to that position.  Since they beat the Warriorz in Salt Lake 3 weeks ago, the odds seem to be well in their favor, however, the Warriorz have proven to be a formidable foe for anyone this season.  The only team outside of the weak south division the Warriorz have played, however, are the Lionz.  If the Lionz should lose the game, could still hold on to the #1 seed if both Idaho (vs. Uintah Basin) and Boise (vs. Helena)  should lose… not likely.  If the Lionz win, they WILL be #1, if they lose, they will probably fall to #3 and be home hosting on June 14th. They cannot fall further than #3. PREDICTION: Defeat Warriorz 29-6 and get #1 seed.

 

BOISE SPEED (5-2): A few weeks ago, the Speed seemed to be the team of destiny.  They were undefeated at 5-0 and looking to stay that way.  Magic Valley and Great Falls, however, had other ideas and now the Speed are just trying to hold on for a first round bye.  If they defeat the Titans (3-4) they will have a first round bye, either as the #2 or #1 (if the Lionz lose to the Warriorz).  They hold SOS tie-breakers against the Lionz and a 2-0 head-to-head and SOS advantage over the Idaho Matadors.  A loss, however… With Idaho, Magic Valley and even Great Falls favored to win, a loss by Boise could drop them into a 4-way tie at 5-3. In that scenario, they have a SOS advantage over Idaho, but not the other teams and could end up at #4.  PREDICTION: Defeat Helena 41-7 and get #2 seed.

 

IDAHO MATADORS (5-2): The Matadors draw probably the easiest final game, hosting the virtually winless Uintah Basin at home.  Barring the biggest upset in sports history, the Matadors will finish 6-2 and will have to count on the Helena Titans, who they just humiliated in their own house, to get the big road upset of the Speed for them to seed anything but #3.  If the planets align, they do have an outside shot at #1, if both the Speed and Lionz lose.  To get the SOS advantage over the Lionz, however, they will likely need both Snake River to drop the Knights and Morgan to defeat Great Falls and Magic Valley to defeat Logan.   Likely, however, they are set at #3.  PREDICTION: Defeat Uintah Basin 60-0 and get #3 seed.

 

GREAT FALLS GLADIATORS (4-3): The Great Falls Gladiators pulled off the biggest seedings jump last week, defeating Boise at home.  The victory set them up to go 5-3 with a victory on the road at Morgan and with the great success of the North division teams this season, have the SOS edge over all other potential 5-3 comers, including Magic Valley and Logan.  In fact, if the Helena Titans did pull off the upset in Boise and Glacier wins at Snake River as expected, not one North division team would finish with a record less than .500 giving those teams significant SOS leverage over the other two divisions who boast struggling Snake River and Uintah Basin who most divisional opponents played twice.  So a Gladiator victory assures them of a first round home game… against the winner of the Magic Valley/Logan game.  If the Gladiators cannot pick up the long road victory, they’re 4-4 record and strength of schedule edge will get them in over the loser of the Magic Valley/Logan game and Glacier (who will have had two non-division games against Snake River) .  With a loss to Morgan, making Morgan 5-3, the Gladiators would be the 6 seed and open up (probably) at the Matadors. PREDICTION: Defeat Morgan 19-13 and get #4 seed.

 

 MAGIC VALLEY BULLDAWGS (4-3): The Bulldawgs sure seem to be the best 4-3 team in the league right now and having beaten the once mighty Speed, its difficult to think that its possible that the Bulldawgs might not even make the playoffs this season… however, that is a scenario that could await if they are unable to win at Logan on Saturday.  The Bulldawgs are knocked out with a loss to Logan and  Morgan victory over Great Falls or a Glacier victory over Snake River or a Helena win over Boise.  You get the point. The playoffs start NOW for these Bulldawgs.   If they do win, then they can hope for the Morgan victory, assuring them of the #4 seed and a first round home game… probably against Great Falls.  If they win and the Gladiators win, they would be on the road in round one, probably at Great Falls.  PREDICTION: Defeat Logan 28-14 and get #5 seed.

 

GLACIER KNIGHTS (3-4):  Yep, that’s right, I’m listing the teams in order of likely finish given my predictions. IF the Knights win AND both Great Falls and Magic Valley beat Logan and Morgan, the Knights do hold a slight SOS advantage over Logan and Morgan; actually beating Logan head-to-head.  If, however, either Morgan or Logan win, advancing them to 5-3 and dropping their opponents (Great Falls or Magic Valley) to 4-4, the Knights do NOT hold the SOS tie-breaker over those teams and would be eliminated.  Further, a Strippling Warriorz win against the Lionz would make the Warriorz 4-4 and they also have the SOS edge over Glacier.  Glacier was benefitted by the “soft” schedule of drawing Snake River twice… however, ironically, had they not had the likely 7-1 Lionz on the schedule, they would be mathematically eliminated already.  So… for the Knights to eke into the playoffs they need 1) a victory over Snake River 2) Magic Valley to beat Logan 3) Great Falls to beat Morgan 4) Boise beats Helena AND Lionz to beat the Warriorz.  Although those are all of the “favorites”, none of them are done deals.  The Knights can do no better than the #6 seed and would open up back in Western Idaho on June 14th.  PREDICTION: Defeat Snake River 28-14 and get #6 seed.

 

MORGAN MARAUDERS (4-3): Although I list the Marauders behind Glacier, its almost a toss up for me on whether they can beat the Gladiators on the road and jump into the playoffs at the #5 seed.  Morgan can actually get as high as the #4 seed and host  a first round playoff game  IF they win and Logan beats Great Falls.  With both Great Falls and Morgan sitting at 4-3, whichever team wins is guaranteed a playoff spot. I favor the Marauders chances over the Stampede for a couple of reasons.  First, I think that the Stampede opponent (Magic Valley) has played better than Great Falls this season and will be a tougher opponent. Second, the Stampede’s opponent (Magic Valley) has a significantly shorter road trip (about 2-1/2 hours) than does Morgan’s opponent (Great Falls; about 7-8 hours). For these reasons, I believe that this game is a veritable toss up.  I’m assuming Great Falls, however, will travel well, as a victory sets them up with a first round home game… something they have never had.  If, however, Morgan loses, they CAN still make the playoffs IF: 1) Glacier loses 2) Strippling loses 3) Logan loses 4) Helena loses. The only 4-4 tie-breaker edge they would likely have is over Logan.  PREDICTION: Lose to Great Falls 13-19 and miss playoffs.

 

LOGAN STAMPEDE (4-3): The Stampede situation is very much similar to Morgan. If they win, they are in… and be the #5 seed. Unlike Morgan, they can finish no higher than #5.  Because they have the weakest of the SOS ratings of all of the possible 4-4 teams, however, they also would NOT make the playoffs under any circumstance… with a loss.  For Logan, the Playoffs start now.  Perhaps this edge will help against Magic Valley.  Magic Valley would still make the playoffs even if they lost… unless the unlikely occurrence that Helena beats Boise.  Helena has the strongest SOS of all of the possible 4-4 teams. Simple evaluation here. If Logan wins, they are number #5 and would open AT the winner of the Great Falls/Morgan game. Lose, and it would be a good first season, however, disappointing.  PREDICTION: Lose to Magic Valley 14-28 and miss playoffs.

HELENA TITANS (3-4): Helena’s situation is as simple as can be.  If they can defeat Boise at Boise on Saturday… they are in and would claim the #6 seed and book a return trip to… probably western Idaho against the Matadors.  If Helena loses, they can start their post season vacation plans.  Can they beat Boise in Idaho?  Sure, why not?  Helena did beat the Lionz to tag them with their only loss (so far) and Boise is on a two game losing streak.  Is it likely? Hmmm… PREDICTION:  Lose to Boise 7-41 and miss the playoffs.

 

 STRIPPLING WARRIORZ (3-4): After spending much of the season recruiting AAA caliber players and winning games with those players, some added legally, some not, the Warriorz will likely become the most talented team to not be in the playoffs.  They will also, however, be a team lucky to still be playing football anywhere.  With the Warriorz violations continuing to mount, they travel to the uppermost edge of eastern Idaho to try to beat a Lionz team on the road that they could not put down at home three weeks earlier.  IF they travel with a full team AND IF they can settle all pending issues by Friday before they leave, they have a decent chance at pulling off an upset and becoming a dangerous 6th seed. (Editors note: The current issues have been settled and will not be an issue for the game.) However, those are pretty big IF’s.  The Warriorz  seem to be bent on racking up more fines and non-compliance violations than any team in RMFL history.  If they can get beyond it all and make the 4-1/2 hour trip could make the final playoff picture interesting.  PREDICTION: Lose to Eastern Idaho 6-29 and miss the playoffs.

 

 

 

AA Playoff Possibilities

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

Elimintaed IF:

Eastern Idaho Lionz (6-1)

Win vs. Warriorz
OR
Lose vs. Warriorz
AND
Both Boise & Idaho Lose

Lose vs. Warriorz
AND (1 of following)
Helena def. Boise
OR
Uintah Basin def. Idaho

Lose vs. Warriorz
AND
Boise def. Helena
AND
Idaho def. U.B.

(pending SOS tie-breakers with Idaho)

-

-

-

-

Boise Speed (5-2)

Win vs. Helena
AND
Warriorz def. Lionz

Win vs. Helena
AND
Lionz def. Warriorz

Lose vs. Helena
AND
Idaho def. U.B.

Lose vs. Helena
AND
Idaho def. U.B.
AND
GF def. Morgan
OR
MV def.
Logan

Lose vs. Helena
AND
Idaho def. U.B.
AND
GF def. Morgan
AND
MV def.
Logan

-

-

Idaho Matadors (5-2)

Win vs. U.B.
AND
Warriorz def Lionz
AND
Helena def. Boise
AND
SR def. Glacier

Win vs. U.B.
AND
Lionz def. Warriorz
AND
Helena def. Boise

Win vs. U.B.
AND
Lionz def. Warriorz
AND
Boise def. Helena

Lose vs. U.B.

AND
GF def. Morgan
OR
MV def.
Logan

Lose vs. U.B.
AND

GF def. Morgan
AND
MV def.
Logan

-

-

Great Falls Gladiators (4-3)

-

Win vs. Morgan
AND
Helena def. Boise
AND
U.B. def.
Idaho

Win vs. Morgan
AND

Helena def. Boise
OR
U.B. def.
Idaho

Win vs. Morgan
AND
Boise and Idaho both win

-

Lose vs. Morgan

-

Magic Valley Bulldawgs (4-3)

-

-

Win vs. Logan
AND
U.B. def.
Idaho
AND
Morgan def. GF

Win vs. Logan
AND
Idaho def. U.B.
AND
GF def. Morgan

-

Lose vs.Logan
AND
GF def. Morgan
AND
Boise def. Helena

Lose vs. Logan
AND
Helena def. Boise
AND
Warriorz def. Lionz

Morgan Marauders (4-3)

-

-

Win vs. GF
AND
U.B. def.
Idaho
AND
Logan def. MV

Win vs. GF
AND

U.B. def.
Idaho
OR
Logan def. MV

Win vs. GF
AND
Idaho def. U.B.
AND
MV def.
Logan

Lose vs. GF
AND
SR def. Glacier
AND
Boise def. Helena
AND
Lionz def. Warriorz
AND
MV def.
Logan

Lose vs. GF
AND (any 1 of the following)
SR def. Glacier
OR
Boise def. Helena
OR
Lionz def. Warriorz
OR
MV def.
Logan

Logan Stampede (4-3)

-

-

-

-

Win vs. MV

-

Lose vs. MV

Glacier Knights (3-4)

-

-

-

-

 

 

Lose vs. Sabercats
OR
Helena def.
Boise
OR
Warriorz def. Lionz
OR
Morgan def. GF
OR
Logan def. MV

Helena Titans (3-4)

-

-

-

-

 

 

Lose vs. Speed
OR
Helena def. Boise

Strippling Warriorz (3-4)

-

-

-

-

 

 

Lose vs. Lionz

Uintah Basin Oilers (1-6)

Eliminated

Snake River Sabercats (0-7)

Eliminated

 

 

 

 

AAA

 

UTAH WOLVERINES (6-1): Obviously, by listing the Wolverines first, I am predicting that they will hold serve against the visiting Shock on Saturday and grab the #1 seed. That, however, is no foregone conclusion.  The game sets up as a great battle between the league’s top two quarterbacks, Jordan Kjar of the Shock and Charlie Peterson of the Wolverines and although, the Shock offense has proven more potent overall, I think that the Wolverines have a weapon in Joe Mapson, that the Shock may have difficulty finding an aswer for.  Further, the Wolverines defense has proven to be a bit better all year.  With the Salt Lake Seminoles looking to forfeit their final game against Bear River, it also takes away any possibility of the Shock losing and dropping further than #2.  If the Seminoles had beaten Bear River and Pocatello had beaten Idaho Falls, the Shock could have fallen behind Pocatello via the points allowed tie-breaker (SOS would likely be even).  As it is… winner is #1 and loser is #2.  Wolverines are home… and they have Mapson.  PREDICTION: Defeat the Shock 35-31 and get the #1 seed.

 

UTAH SHOCK (6-1): The Shock have already lived up to their name in their 2nd season at the AAA level after winning the AA Championship under the moniker “Muddogs”.  Now these dogs find themselves in the catbird seat as they face cross-town rival, Utah Wolverines for the coveted #1 seed through the playoffs.  With the #1 and #2 seeds locked up by these first place teams, there isn’t as much to play for as there could be… perhaps a slightly easier 2nd round opponent (after a first round bye); however, not even that is assured as who’s to say how the bottom 4 will shape up… or who will emerge out of the first round to come to Salt Lake City to play?  The Shock have played well and with pride all season, however, I just don’t see them able to keep it up in a game of so little overall consequence.  I also, see the Wolverines also struggling with intensity for this one.  The Wolverines are home, however, and I just see them pulling this one out in a high scoring affair. PREDICTION: Lose to Wolverines 31-35 and get the #2 seed.

 

POCATELLO PREDATORS (5-2): Seeds #3 thru #5 are just about an absolute toss up. That’s because who’s really to say who will win in the Friday night finale between the Predators and Mustangs?  It’s honestly a “pick ‘em” game all around with no clear advantage and not team you can say has a clear edge.  With Pocatello only 35-40 minutes away, its not much of a road game either.   I’m leaning Pocatello because they simply have been more consistent… due largely to a vastly improved defense, yielding only about 9 points and 60 rushing yards per game so far.  Further, Mustangs quarterback, Donavan Ard,  has been mired in his worst season so far… by far, tossing 11 interceptions against only 4 touchdown passes.  The Mustang offense was shut down by the two Montana teams to 3 points TOTAL in both games.   Regardless, the Mustangs have more talent…and are home.  Further, the Mustangs’ defensive weakness has been against the pass, they have been even better than Pocatello against stopping the run… which is the Predators offensive strength.  The game sets up as a defensive struggle… in which case you have to favor the more consistent defense.  A Pocatello win and they WILL be the #3 seed (assuming the Seminoles forfeit to Bear River). A Pocatello loss and they would drop to the #5 seed with a likely road opener in round 1 of the playoffs against… Idaho Falls.  PREDICTION:  Defeat Idaho Falls 10-7 and get #3 seed or loses to Idaho Falls 6-7 and gets the #5 seed???

 

MISSOULA PHOENIX (5-2):  Anyone that knows the history of the Missoula Phoenix/Bitterroot Blaze series cannot honestly look at this game and feel like its any kind of a lock for Missoula, regardless of the injury losses the Blaze have suffered this season.  The Blaze defense, which shut down Idaho Falls to 3 points on the road and intercepted Shane Jurasek 6 times in the 2007 AA Championship game last season is still formidable.  Further, Blaze running back, Justin Nixon is still… Justin Nixon.  The Blaze can… and will be looking to win this game and finish the 2008 season on a positive note.  There is no love lost between the Phoenix and Blaze.  The Phoenix defense, however, is vastly improved since 2007 and quarterback, Shane Jurasek is having one of his finest seasons with 12 touchdown passes against only 4 interceptions… in the AAA division no less.  The Phoenix are definitely the favorite here, beating the Blaze in the first game of the season 16-10, when the Blaze were more or less at full strength.  A Phoenix win combined with an Idaho Falls victory over Pocatello places the Phoenix in the #3 position, hosting the winner of the Heat/Bears game.  A win and a Pocatello win, puts them in the #4 position, hosting the Idaho Falls Mustangs or Cache Valley Bears.  A loss, a Pocatello win, and a Cache Valley win and they would drop all the way to #5 and travel to Cache Valley in round #1.  A loss to Bitterroot and an Idaho Falls win combined with a Cache Valley win and they drop as far as #6 losing the SOS tie-breakers with Pocatello, Cache Valley and Idaho Falls.  The Phoenix have clinched a playoff spot, but where they open up and against who is far from settled.  They need and they really want to win Friday night.  After all, they owe the Blaze a series sweep… or two.  PREDICTION: Missoula defeats Bitterroot 20-14 and gets the #4 seed.

 

IDAHO FALLS MUSTANGS (4-3):   Yes, the Mustangs still have a shot at the #3 seed.  A Mustangs win on Friday night… combined with a Bitterroot win on Friday night and the Mustangs claim the #3 seed and would host Missoula in the first round (if the Bears win) or the Utah Heat (if the Heat beat the Bears).  The Mustangs defense has been very good this season, particularly against the run and yes, the offense has underperformed for most of the season.  However, there is reason to be optimistic in Mustang-ville.  Over the past two games against Bear River and Cache Valley, the offense has turned it around, scoring an average of 39 points in those two games; and those were a couple of pretty good defenses.  I’m expecting, however, a defensive battle as nerves will be tight and the weather will be cool, windy and probably raining, setting up for a grind it out conservative playoff atmosphere game.  If, however, the Mustangs are not able to knock off their biggest rival in the AAA, they can still claim the #5 seed and to to Missoula in round one OR they could fall as far as #6 if they lose and the Bears beat the Heat.  In that scenario, they would fall as far as #6, Pocatello would rise to #3 and these teams would be hooking up again in Pocatello on June 14th.  PREDICTION:  Loses to Pocatello 7-10 and get the #6 seed… or beats Pocatello 7-6 and gets the #3 or #4 seed???

 

CACHE VALLEY BEARS (4-3): Although I just predicted that the Mustangs would end up at #6, that prediction is so fraught with question marks its not even worth talking about.  I actually have NO idea who will win in the Pocatello/Idaho Falls game.  If Idaho Falls does win AND, as I assume, Missoula also wins, then the best the Bears can do is #6 seed.  In a 3-way tie at 5-3 with Idaho Falls and Pocatello, the first tie-breaker, head-to-head would resolve the break.  Idaho Falls, by virtue of beating both the Bears and Predators would seed first.  Then, the Predators, by virtue of beating the Bears would go second, leaving the Bears…at seed #6.  In this scenario, assuming Missoula wins, the Bears would draw a first round game in Missoula.  However, if, as the Bears might hope, Bitterroot can knock off Missoula AND Idaho Falls beats Pocatello, setting up a 4-way tie at 5-3,  the head-to-head tie breaker can no longer be used. The Bears would claim the #4 seed and host in round #1 by virtue of their SOS advantage over both Pocatello and Missoula (Idaho Falls has the best SOS of the group and would be #3).  Don’t laugh… this could REALLY happen.  PREDICTION:  Defeats Heat 35-21 and gets #5 seed.

 

UTAH HEAT (3-4): This is the simplest of all evaluations.  If the Utah Heat defeat the Bears in Logan, they are IN the playoffs and will be the #6 seed. There are no other possibilities.  If the Heat lose, they are out.  The Heat are a dangerous football team that has beaten the Pocatello Predators… who have beaten the Bears… so, anything can happen.  Did anyone imagine, however, before the season started, that only one of these two teams would make the playoffs? A bigger question might be, did anyone think that the Bears wouldn’t make the playoffs?? I didn’t either.  Certainly not when they have a playoff-clinching finale at home.  PREDICTION:  Lose to Bears 21-35 and miss playoffs.

 

 

AAA Playoff Possibilities

#1

#2

#3

#4

#5

#6

Eliminated IF:

Utah Wolverines (6-1)

Win vs. Shock

lose vs. Shock

-

-

-

-

-

Utah Shock (6-1)

Win vs. Wolvs.

Lose vs. Wolvs.
AND
Bear River beats SL OR
Pocatello loses vs. IF

Lose to Wolvs.
AND
SL beats BR
AND
Pocy beats IF

-

-

-

-

Pocatello Predators (5-2)

-

Win vs. IF
AND
Shock lose to Wolvs.
AND
SL beats BR

Win vs. IF
AND
Shock beat Wolvs.
OR
BR beats SL

Lose vs. IF
AND
Bitt def.
Miss.
AND
Heat def. Bears

Lose vs. IF
AND
Miss def. Bitt.

-

-

Missoula Phoenix (5-2)

-

-

Win vs. Bitt
AND
IF beats
Pocatello

Win vs. Bitt
AND
Pocatello def. IF
OR
Lose vs. Bitt
AND
Pocy def. IF
AND
Heat def. Bears

Lose vs. Bitt.
AND
IF def.
Pocatello
AND
Heat def. Bears

Lose vs. Bitt
AND
IF def.
Pocatello
AND
Bears def. Heat

-

Idaho Falls Mustangs (4-3)

-

-

Win vs. Pocatello
AND
Bitt def.
Missoula

Win vs. Pocatello
AND
Missoula def. Bitt.

Lose vs. Pocatello
AND
Bears def. Heat

Lose vs. Pocatello
AND
Heat def. Bears

-

Cache Valley Bears (4-3)

-

-

-

Win vs. Heat
AND
IF def.
Pocatello
AND
Bitt def.
Missoula

Win vs. Heat
AND
Pocatello def. IF
AND
Missoula def. Bitt.

Win vs. Heat
AND
IF def.
Pocatello