AAA Play-off Run and Report Card
With 3 games remaining games in the AAA regular season,
the play-off picture is beginning to take shape. At this time, it would appear that a final
record of 5-3 should guarantee a play-off berth. A team might make the play-offs with a 4-4
record, but it will take a combination of a number of games coming out just
right for a team to make it with that record.
As I said in my pre-season rankings, there is a great
amount of parity in the AAA this year.
There are still at least 8 teams that have legitimate shots at making
the play-offs. Following is a report
card on each team and their probable chances of making the play-offs.
1) Pocatello Predators - A+. The Predators were ranked as
the #7 pre-season team and as such, not making the play-offs. Right now, the Predators are 4-1 and tied
with the Shock and Wolverines with 1 loss each to lead the league. At 4-1, all the Predators have to do is win 1
more game and they should be play-off bound.
Right now, the Predators should be playing not for the play-offs, but
for play-off seeding. They have games
remaining against the Heat (away), the Vipers (home), and the Mustangs
(away). If present trends continue, they
should beat both the Heat and the Vipers.
Their final game of the season should come against the rival Mustangs
with a win probably giving them a 1st round bye. The Predators success can be attributed to a
surprising stifling defense that is ranked near the top of the league. They have given up only 43 points in 5
games. Another key to their success is
the steady improvement of the offense.
The addition of Shaun Ellsworth at running back has given them the run threat they have lacked in the past. Jordan Peterson is finally coming around at
QB and finding his game. His confidence
and performance has improved with every game.
2) Utah Shock – A. The Shock were ranked as the pre-season #6 team garnering the final
play-off spot. After an opening season
loss, the Shock have won 5 straight to lead the AAA
RMFL with a 5-1 record. Both the Wolverines and Predators also have only 1
loss, but have already had their bye weeks and technically trail the Shock by ½
game. Even if the Shock were to lose out the season,
they still should make the play-offs.
They have games remaining against a struggling Bitterroot team next week
at a neutral site (Idaho Falls),
their bye week, and then face the Wolverines in an away game for their final
regular season game of the year. This
game could very well be the game to decide the #1 and #2 regular season finish
with both teams earning byes in the first round of the play-offs. There are 2 keys to the Shocks success this
year. The 1st is QB Jordan
Kjar. His return from last year’s injury
has given the offense the stability and passing attack it has needed. Kjar is presently 2nd in the
league in both QB rating and passing yards.
Secondly is the Shock’s ability for the defense and offense to take over
when the other falters. Typical is a
game against an IF team. The offense
struggled scoring only 9 points, but the defense would hold the Mustangs to 6
points and a win. Against the last place
Rockets, the Shock would roll up 55 points on
offense. The defense, however would give
up 42 points. The defense is presently
ranked last in the league.
3) Wolverines – A-. The Wolverines were the #2
pre-season pick. They have lived up to
that ranking presently battling it out for 1st place with the
Predators and Shock. The Wolverines are
virtually guaranteed a play-off spot.
The Wolverines are coming off their bye week and have home games
remaining against the Seminoles, Heat and Shock. Based on the season results so far, they
should win their next 2 games and go in to their final game against the Shock
with both teams tied at 6-1. This game
could determine the regular season #1 and #2 seeding. If the Predators should win out, this game
will probably be for a #1or #2 seed for the winner and a #3 at best ranking for
the loser. The Wolverines success hinges
on their passing offense. Charlie
Petersen is presently the #1 ranked QB and leading passer in the league. Joe Mapson leads the league in receiving and
scoring. The rushing offense, however,
presently ranks #8 out of 11 while the defense presently ranks 9th.
4) Missoula Phoenix – A-. Missoula
was the pre-season #8 ranked team. They
started the season 3-0, but have lost their last 2 straight. These 2 losses, though, were to the
Wolverines and Predators, presently 2 of the top 3 teams in the league. They will finish the season with a home game
against the Vipers and away games against the Seminoles and Blaze. Winning 2 of these 3 games should give them a
play-off berth. Winning all 3 will
probably give them a 1st round home game. The season results would give them the nod
over both the Vipers and Seminoles and a play-off berth. The final game of the season will be against
the rival Blaze. This should be a huge
game as the Blaze could be in a position to earn a play-off spot only if they
win out, including this game against the Phoenix. Missoula
has found success this year with their defense.
Going into last week’s game, the Phoenix
touted the 2nd ranked defense in the league. The success of their defense is in its reliability
on team defense. The leading tackler for
the Phoenix is
only 21st in the league, a tribute to their team defense.
5) Cache Valley –
B. Cache Valley
was the #1 pre-season pick. They are
presently 3-2 having beaten the Shock, but losing to the Predators and
Wolverines. They finish the season at Idaho Falls, at
Bitterroot, and finally hosting the Heat.
Normally, I would predict that the Bears would sweep their last 3 games
and go into the play-offs at 6-2.
However, it seems that the Bears have lost that spark they had last
year. They do not seem to have the same
intensity they played with last year.
They still should win at least two of their last three games giving them
a 5-3 record and making the play-offs.
Predicting a logjam at 5-3, the Bears could end up anywhere from the #3
to #6 ranked team going into the play-offs.
6) Bitterroot Blaze – C-. The Blaze started the
season as the #5 ranked team. They
started on a sour note losing to the Phoenix
for the 1st time ever. They
presently sit at 2-3 after last week’s loss to the Vipers. Their 3 remaining games are against the
Shock, the Bears, and a return engagement with the Phoenix.
They will probably have to win all 3 games to make the play-offs. Realistically, they will be doing outstanding
to win 2 of their remaining games and could easily lose 2 or all 3 of these games. The likelihood of the Blaze making the
play-offs is slim, at best. The key to
their season has been the running of Justin Nixon. However, in the AAA, the yards have not come
as easily as they did in AA. Without a
successful passing game, defenses have stacked 8 and 9 defenders in the
box. To be successful in the AAA, a team
must have a competent passing game. The
Blaze have realized this and are working on this. If they can improve their passing game, they
have the defense and running game to make them competitive in next year’s AAA.
7) Idaho Falls Mustangs – D+. The Mustangs were picked
to finish #3 in the league this year.
They are presently 2-3 and also probably need to sweep their last 3
games to make the play-offs. However, of
all the teams with 2 win, the Mustangs probably have the best team and best
chance to pull this off. The Mustang’s
biggest downfall this year has been their inability to score. They were outplayed in their 1st
game against Missoula
and lost 3-0. In their other 2 losses
they have dominated their opponents on offense and defense, but have still lost
both games 9-6 and 6-3. With just a
little luck, the Mustangs could be 5-0.
However, to win out, they must get by the Bears this weekend. If they don’t win this game, their play-off
hopes are probably lost. If hey can win
against the Bears, they should beat the Rockets. That would leave them with a season-ending
must-win game against the Predators, their rival 50 miles to the south. The Mustangs strength this year has been
their defense and their running game with Travis Boden leading the league in
rushing. The Mustang offense line is
also the topped ranked line in the league.
The two weaknesses are in the passing game and in the turnover
department. Donovan Ard is only the 12th
rated passer in an 11-team field. He
also leads the league in interceptions with 8 prior to last week’s game.
8) Utah Heat –
D. The Heat were
the #4 ranked pre-season league but are languishing with a 2-3 record. I would rank them above the Mustangs except
for the fact that they lost to the Mustangs last week. They also suffer from the same malady as the
Mustangs, an inability to score. The
other thing going against the Heat is that their last 3 games are home against Pocatello and away games at the Wolverines and Cache Valley. If the present records are any indication,
the Heat should lose all 3 games and finish at 2-6. A 3-5 finish would probably have to be
considered a successful end to the season.
This has been a difficult season for the Heat. They do not seem to be able to establish any
consistency in any aspect of their game.
Their leading rusher is QB Adam Cunningham, seldom a good omen for the
offense. Yet, prior to last week, their
defense and offense both ranked #4 in the league. It does not look likely that the Heat will
make the play-offs this year. They need
to start thinking about what changes they need to make to find success next
year.
9) Davis Vipers – C. The Vipers were picked to
finish #9 in the pre-season rankings.
They are presently 2-4 on the season and have only 2 away games reaming
at Missoula and Pocatello.
Three things have kept the Vipers in games this year. A solid defense, the kicking of Colton Cook,
and the running of Devon Holbrook. In
last week’s game against Bitterroot, the defense did not allow an offensive
score. Even if the Vipers win their last
2 games, they would need to myriad of things to happen before they would make
the play-offs. The move to AAA was
probably a bigger step than they expected. The encouraging news for the Vipers
is that they seem to finally be adjusting to the AAA and should find more
success next year.
10) Bear River Rockets – C. The Bear River Rockets were
picked as the #10 at the season’s start.
They have done as expected and presently hold a 1-5 record. The good news is that they beat the Heat two
weeks ago and put up 42 points against the top ranked Shock last week. They have a bye week this weekend and finish
hosting Idaho Falls
and finish out at the Seminoles. It
would be expected that they lose to the Mustangs. They could find themselves playing their
return game against the Seminoles for that #10 spot. Win and they might avoid moving back to AA
next year. Lose both of their last games
and AA is almost a certainty. Bear River seemed totally unprepared for the level of
competition that the AAA would provide them this year. The unfortunate part is that they finally
seem to be adjusting to their role in the AAA and are playing much-improved
ball. It may just be too late for them
to avoid the return trip to the AA.
11) Salt Lake
Seminoles – D. The Salt Lake Seminoles were predicted to
finish at the bottom of the AAA this year.
They are presently 1-4 have beaten only the Rockets. They have remaining games at the Wolverines
and hosting Missoula
before closing out the season against the Rockets, this time at home. Season
results would indicate that they will go into the final game of the season tied
for last place with the Rockets at 1-6.
The loser of this game will finish last in the league and earn a trip to
the AA next year. The winner should
finish 2-6 and may, just may, avoid returning to the AA. The likelihood is that both of these teams
will move down to AA next year. For the
Seminoles, it has been a disappointing year.
The Seminoles have many talented players. Word from around the league is that they lack
the leadership to make the team successful.
For the Seminoles to be successful, or maybe even be around next year,
they must find a strong leader to steer their ship.
And
so, this appears to be the play-off picture.
As predicted at the start of the year, there is and will continue to be
a great amount of parity in the RMFL AAA division. Even this close to the end of the season, the
play-off makeup and standings is still in doubt. Which hopefully means that
the play-offs will be just as competitive and just as unpredictable as the
regular season has been.