ROCKETS, BLAZE, VIPERS AND GLADIATORS TO ASCEND TO THE TOP… BUT A DANGEROUS GROUP OF “MIDDLE TEAMS’ COULD TOPPLE THE BRACKET IN ‘07
RMFL Team Reviews/Projections: by Jared Neumeier
PLAYERS!! READ THIS FIRST!!
This preview is NOT the official nor final word from your coaches on
who will start and who will not! Every
position is competed and will continue to be competed at each practice and each
game. If you are hearing differently
from your coaches lately regarding starting or playing time, take THEIR word
for it, not mine!
RMFL – After only one season of predicting the RMFL’s AA tier teams, I was able to learn one, single, unmistakable, inarguable lesson:
Our AA Teams are ENTIRELY UNPREDICTABLE.
Here is the order of ranking that I pre-ranked our 12 teams from last season. In parenthesis is how they actually did:
1. Vipers (2nd , 2nd best record, lost to Muddogs in Championship)
2. Helena Titans (7th; missed the play-offs with a 4-4 record)
3. Bitterroot Blaze (3rd, although went lower seeded that Gladiator with 5-3 record, they beat Gladiators and seemed to be 3rd best team at end of season)
4. Grand Junction Scorpions (10th, ouch!)
5. Missoula Raptors (4th, best record in Montana with 6-2 record, after first round bye, lost to Vipers at home)
6. Muddogs (no repect, eh? Never lost a game, won championship)
7. Snake River Sabercats (11th, winless again, rumors of their improved defense were highly exaggerated)
8. Morgan Marauders (8th, finished 4-4)
9. Magic Valley Bulldawgs (9th, finished 2-6)
10. Great Falls Gladiators (6th, solid regular season and playoff appearance with a 5-3 record; just couldn’t beat the Blaze 3 times)
11. Bear River Valley Rockets (5th, finished a solid 6-2, arguably better than any of the Montana teams, however, with a first round loss to Vipers, fall to 5)
12. Glacier Knights (12th, usually a freebie pick, might not be as easy this year)
So you see… a few hits… a few misses. More misses than hits, particularly the play of Bear River Valley and Great Falls. I had them 10th and 11th and they BOTH made the playoffs. My #2 was another BIG miss, Helena just couldn’t find the consistent offense to come through… and the Sabercats. Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, shame on me
I have to admit, without any new teams coming into the AA division, this years task of pre-ranking the teams should be significantly easier. Last seasons’ rankings, I had to predict how these teams would do after having played AAA level teams on their schedule the season immediately before (2005). Obviously, some teams, like Bear River Valley really improved… and really took advantage of the schedule.
Now I’ve had a season of seeing how the 5 Montana teams would play each other and how much improvement the Snake River defense would actually accomplish… and how far the Bulldawgs had… come back.
So… what will be my excuse next year… when the new AA Commissioner, Ed Cerise tries his hand in this exciting enterprise?
My excuse, if I will need one, will be this… we have a few of “wild cards” thrown in the deck!!
Wild Card #1: Idaho Matadors. Not that I’m convinced they will be one of the top teams this season, its just that they weren’t part of the field last season and could easily be this season’s Bear River Valley or Great Falls and have me eating humble pie a the end.
Wild Card #2: Bitterroot Blaze. Not sure of how the health of their key players will hold up. This is a concern. If they don’t keep their key lineman… and Justin Nixon healthy, even with a new stud receiver, they could drop to bottom middle of this pack
Wild Card #3: Vipers offensive line. My first cut at this, I automatically promoted the Vipers to the #1 ranking (with the Muddogs now gone), but with all the changes in their #1 offensive line, I now had my doubts. If the ones coming in are as good as the ones that are injured or gone, the Vipers should be #1. I’m just not sure… therefore, a wildcard.
THESE ARE THE THINGS I’M PRETTY SURE ABOUT:
1) The top 4 teams I’ve pre-ranked WILL be in the playoffs
2) The bottom 2 teams you see WILL be the bottom two.
3) At least two teams in the middle (5 thru 9) are going to shock us… for the good or the bad
As always, however, I like to stress that these predictions are NOT my personal hope of what will happen, only my best amateurish projection of how, based on the pre-season information I have vis a vis, last season’s performance, I think they will end up this season. I would love to see the Marauders and Knights not only win some games, but turn this prediction upside down. I don’t get any extra pay for being correct. I think it is safe to say that almost everyone will have the top three teams you see in their top three predictions, however, maybe in a different order, so I think that for most of us as we await the 2007 season to kick off in a few days are really wondering just how teams 4 thru 10 will really perform.
One interesting scheduling affect to note: All three Utah teams, Vipers, Bear River Valley and Morgan requested that they not be home for the first part of the season. This means that the Utah teams will all be on long road trips for at least the first two weeks of the season and in some cases 3 or 4 weeks. This could be an advantage to the Idaho teams. If they have improved as they each insist they have, and the come to play when highly ranked and highly touted Bear River Valley and the Vipers come to play, that may end up being a factor when we talk about what will happen with the 4 thru 10 ranked teams… a group all three Idaho teams fall within.
On the flip side, if Idaho, Snake River and Magic Valley are not able to take advantage of the early season travel advantage, it could be a long season for them.
In Montana, I think we will see another nice 4-way again, similar to last season, however, I think that Helena has just had too much attrition to win many of those games. Perhaps they will upset a rival at home, and perhaps they will be the team that gets upset by Glacier in Glacier. I know that Bitterroot and Missoula is the state’s biggest emotional rivals, but I think that Great Falls and Bitterroot will evolve this season into the most exciting games around the RMFL. Once again, Missoula will be good, but not great. I just question if they have the size along the front lines to contend with the other of Montana’s best, including Helena, which has the biggest offensive line in the AA.
PLAYOFF ANALYSIS: In Utah, there is no question that the Rockets and Vipers are the clear favorites to qualify for 2 of the three playoff spots. After the pre-season weekend of March 31st in which the Vipers beat the AAA Wolverines and the Rockets lost handily to the Cache Valley Bears, a lesser man might be tempted to flip-flop the two teams… and certainly, it won’t surprise anyone if the Vipers do go #1 and the Rockets #2. But, I know for a fact that the Wolverines had a ton of players they needed to get playing time and I know for a fact that the Bears used their starters for a lot more of that game than one would expect… I’m just not ready to read too much from games that seem to mean less to some teams that to other teams. Since I’m already discounting Morgan for losing key skill players and not matching up size-wize to the rest, the final playoff spot could really go to any of the three Idaho teams. I continue to suggest that the Snake River defense will have to prove they have turned the corner and I’m certainly not ready to concede they have now. That leaves Magic Valley and the Matadors battling for the playoff spot. The two teams meet only once during the regular season. Since that game is in Jerome (home of Magic Valley), I’ll give them the edge and project them into the final spot, however, after talking to the Mustangs after playing the Matadors, the Matadors may be a team to really keep an eye on as far as disrupting the Viper/Rockets popularity picks.
I’d then expect the home Utah team to hold serve against the Idaho qualifier in round one, putting the Vipers and Rockets into the semi-finals, presumably with the Rockets with home field advantage.
In Montana, Glacier will be better, just not enough to make a playoff scare and Helena should be a notch lower, but don’t count them out. They have the core of a good enough team, its just their losses of last years team seem to outweigh their gains. Great Falls is the most improved and Missoula is the least improved (although probably no worse). The Blaze will simply be better after now having a season under their belt. If the Blaze escape key injuries, I expect them to emerge with the #1 seed. The Gladiators will be a close second and the Phoenix a close third. Great Falls wins in the quarter-finals at home because of great defense and great depth.
This
scenario would pit Great Falls at Bear River Valley and the Vipers at the Blaze
for the semis. Going up to the Blaze
will be a tough draw for any Utah visitor and I think the Blaze will have some
serious crowd involvement in this one.
That’s the difference. Both games
will be tough, but expect the Rockets to hold serve at home… both times. The North division kind of blew it last
season, when they had the “Tie-breaker” advantage in the event two teams of
equal seeding vied for the championship.
This season, if both #1’s emerge, the game will be hosted by the Rocky
Mountain Division team. I think that
will be the difference on who graduates on to the AAA in 2008 !
TEAM
2 – 
Bitterroot Blaze
3 – 
Vipers
5 – 
Missoula Phoenix
7 – 
Idaho Matadors
8 – 
Helena Titans
10 – 
Glacier Knights
11 – 
Morgan Marauders
DIVISIONAL PROJECTIONS
|
Northern |
W |
L |
GB |
|
Bitterroot* |
6 |
2 |
- |
|
Great
Falls* |
5 |
3 |
1 |
|
Missoula* |
5 |
3 |
1 |
|
Helena |
3 |
5 |
3 |
|
Glacier |
1 |
7 |
5 |
|
Mountain |
|
|
|
|
Bear River
Valley* |
7 |
1 |
- |
|
Vipers* |
6 |
2 |
2 |
|
Magic
Valley* |
4 |
4 |
3 |
|
Idaho |
4 |
4 |
3 |
|
Snake
River |
2 |
6 |
5 |
|
Morgan |
1 |
7 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
* Would qualify for playoffs