LEAGUE PARITY TO GET A TRUE TEST AS TOP TEAMS SQUARE
OFF DURING BIG PLAY-OFF WEEKEND
Feature Story/Preview by: Jared Neumeier
Posted: Friday, June 22, 2007
RMFL – Finally… some big questions that sprang up during the regular season are about to be answered in the post season.
Are the Idaho Falls Mustangs really that much better than they were in week #2 when they fell to the Heat after a furious 4th quarter rally?
Which was the bigger fluke two weeks ago in the Rhino-Raiders vs. Lionz game? Was it that the Lionz were actually able to grab a big lead against the Rhino-Raiders… or was it the Rhino-Raiders miraculous comeback?
And… last, but not least, how… REALLY… do the best teams in Montana stack up against the best AA teams in the Mountain Conference.
There has been much debate, much speculation and a host of prognostications… but on Saturday night… from Darby, Montana to Morgan, Utah… these, and probably many other questions, will be answered.
By all accounts, based upon how these teams performed during the regular season, each of the 4 play-off games of the RMFL should be close… and hotly contested right down to the final play this weekend.
But will they?
Will this really be the weekend where we are able to witness 4 of the greatest playoff games ever played on the same weekend ever… or will this be the weekend that certain teams end up establishing their dominance… and/or others may prove they have been “playing over their heads”.
Here is a quick preview of each match-up…. And how I see the games playing out:
AAA
QUARTER-FINALS:
EASTERN IDAHO (5-4) at RHINO-RAIDERS (7-2): This game matches up the #3 offense of the AAA (Lionz) versus the #1 ranked defense in the RMFL (Rhinos). Amazing stars line up on both sides of the ball… from Tracy Ita, Jake Phippen, Levine Tupe, et all from the Rhino side to Nate Brown, Zack Johnson, Todd Barber, et all from the Lionz side, this could be the match up that makes or breaks this game. When the teams played 3 weeks ago, the Lionz offensive line really came to play… holding a Rhino defense that included both Jake Phippen and Justin Walker without a sack for the first time all season. I really look for Everest Matagi and the Rhino defense to charge hard to reverse all of that. The Lionz offense counters with some pretty good blitz-slowing strategies and personnel. Quarterback, Todd Barber is an excellent, big and strong runner that could just take off and run inside against the hard-charging blitz, however, mostly the Lionz utilize a great shotgun formation and a vast array of talented targets that can turn a hot read into a touchdown if too much secondary is vacated in a blitz sell out. Along with Johnson and tight end, Nate Brown, the Lionz also have a new star, Ammon Kaonohi, former Offenisve MVP, Buck Mouser, and back field targets, Kirk Smith and Josh Pettit, to name a few. It would seem that the Rhino-Raiders will have to be a bit more discriminating when applying blitz pressure, however, that may have been what backfired in the earlier meeting. No doubt, however, defensive coordinator, Matagi, has something up his sleeve to solve that quandary. The Rhino offense this season has been good, not exactly great as in years past. Justin Oswald has been an absolute horse out of the backfield. No running back anywhere nor any season has ever handled the ball for such a high percentage as Oswald. Besides a handful of kneel downs and a couple of scrambles by Dave Stireman, there have only been 6 other rushing attempts out of 200 by anyone other than Oswald in ’07… he has responded with a rushing title and a major contribution to the Rhino-Raider offense. Although Dave Stireman has had his worse season ever in semi-pro football, he proved on one play just how dangerous he and his receiving corps can be. Damon Greenberry seems to be just about back to full speed and Justin DeFour and James Owens seem quite capable of playing home run ball with Stireman as anyone. The Lionz’ 6th ranked defense will have to play similar to their previous match up, containing Oswald (21 rushes, 96 yards in first meeting) and keeping Stireman as off-balance as possible with solid rush and mixing up coverages after the pre-snap read. PREDICTION: All of these games are just too close to call, however, after the heartbreak of the last meeting and the shellacking the Bears put on them last week, I just don’t know how much heart this talented Lionz team has left. Rhino-Raiders 21 Eastern Idaho 13.
UTAH HEAT (5-4) at IDAHO FALLS (6-3): On paper, you wouldn’t think
that Idaho Falls even has a chance. The
Heat boast the #1 offense in the RMFL while the Mustangs defense is ranked 7th…
only slightly higher than 8th ranked Salt Lake. Meanwhile, the Mustangs offense is ranked a
respectable 4th, but then the Heat’s defense is also ranked 4th. Further, the Utah Heat have proven that they
can travel with just as good a team they play at home with. So… do the Mustangs really have a
chance? I believe this is why seasons
need to be looked at in sections and not as a whole. After the Mustangs started the season 0-2 after two road losses
to the Utah’s (Heat and Wolverines), they have only gone 6-1. This is a run of games where there only loss
was a very tight 14-7 road loss to the Bears and a host of other big victories
that includes being the first league team in more than 7 years to defeat the
Rhino-Raiders. The Utah Heat, on the
other hand, have just been good all season.
Although losing 4 games, the only game they really weren’t in was the
first one, a home loss to the Cache Valley Bears. They did lose 35-7 to the Wolverines, however, they lead 7-6 at
the half… before self-destructing in the second half. They also lost close games to both Pocatello and the Rhino-Raiders
and they would really like to have another crack at the Rhino-Raiders, a game
in which they believe they could have… and should have won. But what of this contest? Idaho Falls most certainly has improved
since they last met and if you ask head coach, Sean Powell, he will tell you he
has the “best secondary in the RMFL”… which they will need. The Heat have a one-two punch of Jeff
Johnson and Brian Simmons that conjures memories of the likes of Trevor Bell
and Damon Greenberry from 2006.
Further, quarterback, Jeff Wissler, seems to be making plays like the
Dave Stireman of old. They also have a
Justin Oswaldish, Dannon Handcuff, running out of the backfield. The Heat have certainly earned the #1
offensive ranking after such an abysmal 2006… and are the Mustangs up to the
task? The Mustangs can put two former “fastest
man” in the RMFL winners, Josh Roth and Brandon Reed back to cover Simmons and
Johnson, however, the real secondary studs are probably Darrell Thompson and
Koby Spencer. I believe that although
the Mustangs have shored up their front seven with the additions of Roy “Pacman”
Withers and Irven Hill to play with a solid front 7 cast, the Heat will have to
run more than they are used to doing to win this game. Jeff Wissler has really turned this team
around and might be the “leader in the clubhouse” for an RMFL MVP award,
however, he has thrown 16 interceptions (against 20 touchdowns) this season, so
he has been prone to making mistakes… which would be even more costly in a game
such as this. The Mustangs offense will
rely on that great balance with Travis Boden and CJ Campbell running out of the
backfield and Todd Johnson, Scott Brown and Brandon Reed running through the
secondary, there is probably little adjustment they will have to do. Likewise, the
Heat defense is solid at all levels. All-star, Mike Tooa and all-star
alternates, Fisi Tuatonga and Siolo Toala, are just this defense
exemplified. They generally play solid,
straight up defense and overwhelm opponents with hustle and talent. These units going at each other would be a
joy to watch. PREDICTION: Two things
have me picking against what I think is the true Cinderella story of the season
in the RMFL, the Utah Heat. First is
that I do agree that the Mustangs secondary will be a problem. I think that the Mustangs strength plays
into what the Heat are used to doing.
Second, this will be the 4th straight over the border road
game for this great Heat team. That
would make things difficult for any team in the league. Don’t count the Heat out, they are too
explosive… especially in the 4th quarter! Idaho Falls 29 Utah Heat 21
AA SEMI-FINALS:
MISSOULA (6-2) at VIPERS (8-0): In 2006, the Vipers finished the #2
team in the Mountain Conference, while Missoula finished as the #1 team in the
Northern Conference. The Vipers then proceeded to go up to Montana and beat the
higher ranked home team 28-6. The
Vipers poured in 21 first half points to lead 21-0 at the half, sacked Shane
Jurasek 5 times, and more than double up Missoula in total net yards. On the good side, the Vipers did only
complete one pass in the game… but they really didn’t need to do more,
considering the big early lead and the fact they had two running backs, Josh
Christensen and Kyle Curtis both rushing for more than 100 yards in the
game. So what could possibly be
different this year? Besides, of
course, the name of the Missoula franchise and the location of the game. Answer:
probably not enough for the Phoenix to pull off the big upset. The Phoenix have added star receiver, Dave
Garza… which will help, and their offensive line may be a little better, going
from 9th last season to 7th this season; and the Vipers
still don’t have any kind of quarterback that will scare a defense with his arm…
but who cares, right? There won’t be a
Kyle Curtis along side of Josh Christensen, but there will be a Devon
Holbrook. In short, the Vipers are all
the team they probably were in ’06 when they pulled off the big road victory…
only they will be home this season. The
Vipers boast the #2 Defense and #2 Offense in 2007. The Phoenix offense ranks 5th
and its defense ranks 4th. The
Phoenix, however, do know how to pass, as Shane Jurasek tossed 16 touchdown
passes against only 7 interceptions. Against
the Bitterroot Blaze, however, Jurasek threw 0 touchdowns against 6
interceptions… and now must face a very similar defense to the Blaze. I see this game playing out much like a
boxing match between a smaller, quicker fighter against a larger, more powerful
opponent. The Phoenix will need to rely
upon savvy, finesse and some trickery to make some big plays… then… dedicate
just about everyone from the free safety to the water boy to stopping the
Vipers rushing attack, to win the game.
The Vipers? Well, I think they
will have to complete more than 1 pass in this affair… although 2 might just
get it done. All kidding aside, the Vipers
defense is probably good enough to play pretty straight up defense all day to
keep the Phoenix to probably no more than a score. Then their offense… and/or Nash Montoya returning punts, just
needs two scores to win…although I think they’ll get a couple more than that. PREDICTION: Vipers just too much. Vipers 27 Missoula 7
BEAR RIVER VALLEY (6-2) at BITTERROOT (8-0): If there is going to be any upset this weekend in these AA match-ups, I think it would have to be the Bear River Valley Rockets pulling it off. The main reason I see that they might have a better chance than Missoula is because they just have a lot more dangerous weapons on offense than the Phoenix, they have a stronger offensive line and they have a better defense. They will need all of them, however, if they are to have a chance at the undefeated Bitterroot Blaze at home in Darby, Montana. Bear River Valley can boast the #1 ranked offense in the AA, they also have the #3 ranked defense. The Blaze have the #1 ranked defense, in fact, a defense that didn’t give up a single point for the first 6 games of the season, and the Blaze have the #3 ranked offense… on paper, a fairly close match-up. If the Rockets travel well, the Blaze will definitely see the best offense they have seen all season. Rocket quarterback, Mike Jenkins, is a legitimate MVP candidate and, after being runner up to Jordan Kjar of the Muddogs last year, really earned his passing title in 2007. Jenkins passed for more than 1500 yards and tossed 24 touchdown passes to only 7 interceptions. Contrary to the other traveling underdog’, star quarterback (Shane Jurasek of Missoula), proved he can even have a solid game against the top-ranked Vipers defense, passing for 324 yards and 4 touchdowns in their first meeting before being absolutely stymied in the second go-around. Jenkins’ favorite targets seem to be his tight end (Kody Merritt) and his running backs (Mike Messinger and Dave Williams). So what about the Blaze? They have simply been dominating. Justin Nixon ran away with another rushing title and the defense became legendary with their 6-game run of not giving up points. Further, even in the two games that were mostly contested, against the Missoula Phoenix, the Blaze defense still only gave up 105 total net yards in the first and 168 yards in the second. It is quite possible that the Rocket offense will have never seen a defense as good as the Blaze, either. Similar to the Vipers, the Blaze rarely pass, too. Blaze fullback, Tyler Jolley, also had a great season running with Nixon, however, the Blaze passing game was non-existent in many games… mostly, however, because it wasn’t needed. Buckie Brawley’s passing numbers, about 600 yards passing and 7 touchdowns against 6 interceptions were fairly pedestrian, however, they were still quite a bit stronger than Viper quarterbacks have done this year. Grant Roman did finish in the top 10 in a weak AA level wide receiver crop and did catch 5 touchdown passes… so he is a bit of a threat. In short, they Rockets probably cannot sell out on defending the run quite as much as the Phoenix can in their game against the Vipers. The Rockets may wish to keep the water boy and the head cheerleader back for pass coverage. The Muddogs seemed to prove last year that a good defense can stop Justin Nixon.. that is, until it was learned that he was playing with a bum leg. No bum leg this season, however, the Rockets are no bums either. This will be a great game and if it were being held in Utah OR if the Blaze defense just didn’t seem to be playing so well, I’d be looking for an upset here. PREDICTION: The Blaze will have to pass more as the Rockets have some good run stoppers. If the Rocket o-line can protect Jenkins, this will be VERY close. IN fact, I think it will be. Bitterroot 23 Bear River Valley 21