AA MID-SEASON REPORT CARD TIME!!
THE ‘HAVE’S’ AND ‘HAVE NOT’S’ BECOMING INCREASINGLY CLEAR IN THE AA. ARE THERE REALLY ANY TEAMS CAPABLE OF CHALLENGING THE “BIG 4”?
Feature Story by: Jared Neumeier
RMFL – Each year on or about mid-season, I have attempted to review the success, or lack thereof, of all of the RMFL teams with respect to what we had expected of them before the season even began. I have called this feature our “mid-season report cards”. Obviously, a team’s grade is very much affected by the expected position before the season even started. If a team was expected to do well, and they do well, they are still unlikely to earn an “A” grade, which I reserve for teams that actually over-achieve even beyond expectations. So, if you play on one of the teams that has done quite well, but does not get an “A” grade, try no to take it too personally.
Last season at this time, we had no idea what was really going to happen in the Northern Conference. Parity reigned supreme. That was then… this is NOW.
In Montana there are currently two great, undefeated teams… and then there are the “other 3”. In the Mountain Conference, there are two “Giants”… a couple of mid-range teams and a couple of… teams that need a lot more improvement than others.
Of course, the intent of this piece is to evaluate how the teams have fared, vis-à-vis how they were expected to fare before the season started. Suffice to say, Montana was “supposed” to be a lot more competitive….and in the Mountain Conference? Well, that has played out pretty much as expected… except that rather than a split of the 2-games between the “big 2”, the Vipers swept and leap-frogged the Rockets to the #1 position… the AA Driver’s Seat.
Very few doubt at this time who the final 4 will be… perhaps the Matadors lurk as a spoiler to the pre-arranged final 4 show down… but probably not. Until the Blaze and Phoenix actually meet on the field, its not easy to say who will emerge with the #1 Montana seed… and therefore hosting Bear River Valley in late June. The Blaze however, have seemed the most dominant. In fact, the Blaze have seemed more dominant than any other RMFL team in years… but, who have they played?
What it all adds to is a AA regular season that may only have a couple of big games left as everyone looks forward to June 23rd when the real season begins. But, before we get ahead of ourselves, lets take that team-by-team look at how each has fared and award our mid-term grades accordingly.
BITTERROOT BLAZE (5-0): A
Okay, the Blaze were supposed to be good… but were they really supposed to be this dominating. Playing the apparent weakest other teams in Montana they have an average score of about 50 to squat. Many might argue that “that isn’t saying much… who have they played.”. Well, they have played the same teams they played last year… one of them, Great Falls, they lost to both times last season… and Great Falls is probably just as good… or close to it… as they were last year. Conclusion: The Blaze ARE a lot better. And this is the same Blaze team that went down to Utah in the semi’s last season and battled the champion Muddogs well for 4 quarters… and now they are a lot better. Two big match-ups loom with Missoula… a team they beat both times last season. If they could beat Missoula twice last year… and Missoula, a fine team for sure, is only as good as they were last season… well, I think you can figure it out.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 8-0
VIPERS (5-0) : A-
I have to admit. There are two very illegitimate reasons that I have awarded the “A-“ instead of the solid “A” for mid-season. First, to stir up the ‘ol Viper-dominated message board. Second, because of the slapping they did to the Snake River Sabercats a few weeks ago. Yeah, I know neither reason is good, particularly when they seemed to do everything they could to keep the score down versus Snake River, who refused to allow a second half running clock (and I don’t blame Snake River either… you don’t want to travel all that far for a shortened game). Obviously, the Vipers, who I slipped behind the Rockets at pre-season, have proven to be better than the Rockets and the debate is very legitimate regarding who’s better between the Vipers and Blaze. The questions I had pre-season regarding Vipers quarterbacking have really failed to materialize. James Flynn has made some plays and Jeff Labounty, although not exactly spectacular has played like a true veteran and executes the offense. Josh Christensen and Devon Holbrook (the real surprise of the AA) have effectively “lit it up” offensively… The Viper defense… #1 once again. Their true regular season tests are behind them.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 8-0
MISSOULA PHOENIX (4-0): A-
Yeah, I know, I know, in Phoenix-ville, they have GOT to be wondering “wtf do we have to do to get a solid A!?!?” I had the Phoenix actually pre-ranked 5th… behind the Gladiators (ugh) and Bear River Valley; two teams they have out-performed on every front, primarily by record. The Phoenix, however, have had the easiest schedule of all, playing their presumably weakest opponents early… and, getting two bye weeks to prepare for them. Well, they are out of bye weeks and will really be facing their first real test on Saturday. Dave Garza coming over from the Titans to re-team up with Jurasek has been the boost this team needed to hope to keep pace with a Blaze team that really seems to be focused on winning. I don’t think too many people outside of Missoula are giving the Phoenix much of a chance this year against the Blaze, however, Missoula simply has too many weapons and a good enough defense to ignore. If I wasn’t grading on a curve, the Phoenix should probably have an A as well.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 6-2
IDAHO MATADORS (4-1): B+
I knew that the Matadors did a little better than I projected, having defeated the Bulldawgs who I had one notch higher… in the preseason. This alone, merits a better than B grade. However, the whole issue of who would be better between the Matadors and Bulldawgs was, to me, always going to be a bit of a coin toss. It took 9 fourth quarter points, including a big home run ball from Bennett to Lincoln to achieve that… so, the teams I’d still rate pretty much a dead heat. The Matadors, however, DID win… and DO have the inside track now to the playoffs. There still seems to be a vast chasm, however, between whoever grabs the #3 spot and the Rockets. The Matadors, for instance, already lost to the Rockets 38-0… in Idaho. The Matadors seem to be improving, however, their 5th ranked offense and 7th ranked defense (exactly as I pre-season projected) simply mean the Matadors will be a respected AA team this season… and that’s about it.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 5-3
MORGAN MARAUDERS (0-5): B
Obviously, the winless Marauders are benefited by the reality that they were picked to go winless and picked to be last… so a winless first 5 games is a simple matter of “meeting expectations”. I would suggest, however, that the Marauders are actually a little better than their record indicates. Their defense has shown some signs of serious strength (ranked 8th overall) and I give them a decent shot at pulling off an upset when the Idaho Matadors come to town in June. With their other remaining games against the Rockets and Vipers, one win is about all they can hope for and would be enough to get some momentum generated for off-season recruitment for 2008. But, overall, they have done as I thought they would. They just lost too many key players, weapons and size to hang as well as they have done in the past. This is a team, however, we all root for. They always play hard and are always praised for their sportsmanship through it all..
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 0-8
GLACIER KNIGHTS (0-5): B-
Once again, the Glacier Knights find themselves with a slightly better football team than the season before… however, with the same record. And, as usual, an anemic offense that gives little support to a better than average defense. I preseason projected their offense to be 10th and defense to be 8th. The offense has probably even done worse than I expected and their defense… well its 9th, instead of 8th, however, its played the harder part of its schedule so far as well. Any way you look at it, however, they have slightly under-performed to expectations.. which is pretty hard to do when expectations aren’t that high to begin with. Glacier has one legitimately winnable game remaining, this Saturday in Helena, before closing the season with Missoula and Bitterroot, who will have to suffer a SERIOUS case of the ‘not taking an opponent seriously’ for the Knights to pull off an upset. They’ve had a good season, however, with legit shots at Helena and Great Falls at home gone by the waste-side, it looks like another season of football fun… without the wins to show for it for the valiant Knights from North Montana.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 0-8
MAGIC VALLEY BULLDAWGS (3-2): B-
I cannot begin to tell you how much the Magic Valley Bulldawgs REALLY needed the win in their head-to-head contest with the Idaho Matadors. Although the teams are tied with identical 3-2 records, the Matadors hold the first tie-breaker advantage (head to head), which actually puts the Bulldawgs a game down. Further, the Bulldawgs still must play the Vipers and Rockets (and Sabercats) to close out their season. The Matadors record is significantly easier. The Bulldawgs were pre-ranked one notch higher than the Matadors. I did this simply because they had home field advantage in their only head-to-head match up… which they blew. Other than that, however, they have actually had a decent season. Their 16-0 loss to the Vipers was, actually, rather respectable. They handled the Marauders both times they played and beat the Sabercats fairly handily in that match up. The Matador loss looms now as the back-breaker that they probably just don’t have the horses to recover from. They will need to probably beat one or the other, Vipers or Rockets to have a playoff chance… if not both. But a 4-4 season, wouldn’t be too bad and another off-season as good as this last one was, should set these guys up to compete for the AA title in 2008.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 4-4
BEAR RIVER VALLEY ROCKETS (3-2): C+
I doubt that this grade should get much argument. After all, they were projected to be #1 and they’ve already been swept by #3. I did mention in the pre-views, however, that I was back and forth on flip-flopping the Vipers and Rockets. I knew they would be well-matched… and are, my lucky flipping penny just failed me on that one. They certainly shouldn’t get a lower grade simply because they lost a coin toss… and ended up #1! But… such is the way of things. This grade doesn’t change the fact that, except for not beating the Vipers, they have had a very good season… perhaps even more dominating than the Vipers. There was certainly plenty of blame to go around when they had to have a game postponed, however, the primary fault still lies with the home team and they will have to live that down. With only teams they’ve proven they can handle on the schedule, all that remains is for them to “take care of business” and then plan on a trip to Montana… either to Darby or Missoula.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 6-2
HELENA TITANS (1-4): C
When I go back and write up the new “pre-season report cards”, I start with the template of the previous years. Interestingly, last year at mid-season, I had the Titans right here a well… with a C grade. However, the reason last year is that they drew the distinction of being pre-season #1 and hadn’t really come close to living up to that “hype”. Perhaps, then, this teams’ only failing is that I consistently expect more out of them than they are capable. What get them the lower grade is that, although I projected a drop off… and even to the #4 position in the North Division, I did expect they would beat someone other than Glacier (in fact, I thought Glacier would beat them in Glacier), I also expected that their defense would be better (pre-ranked 6th) than what they have performed (8th) giving up big points and yards to Missoula and Bitterroot. After a game at home against Glacier, they finish with back to back games against nearby rival, Great Falls. With the well-chronicled struggles of the Gladiator offense, it is not out of the question that this team will sweep right into the playoffs still..
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 3-5
SNAKE RIVER SABERCATS (1-4): C-
It is arguable not fair to grade the Sabercats down so far when, by my own projections, they have simply done exactly… if not better than, expected. I pre-ranked their offense 7th…. And they are 5th. Their defense I ranked last… and well, they are last. What is so disappointing, however, and thusly the lower mid-season grade is the extent that they continue to get pummeled on defense. I think I can say that I may have projected them last on defense… but I didn’t really believe it. Certainly, if they did have the worst defense…again, I’d never have believed it would be THIS bad. Once again, the Sabercats have given up almost 100 yards more per game… than the next team, which includes Glacier and Morgan who have offenses that put their defense in tough spots and don’t burn up much clock. The Sabercats have had 3 seasons now to get it figured out and improve. With two winnable games, however, against Idaho and Magic Valley, they season is not lost and they can build for next year.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: (1-7)
GREAT FALLS GLADIATORS (2-3): D+
Contrary to Helena, this time last season, the Gladiators were riding high with an A grade at this point. A big turnaround season saw them defeating Helena for the first time and earning 2 hard fought victories over the Bitterroot Blaze… including at Bitterroot. Now, they find themselves at the bottom of the pre-season rankings… what happened?! Now I didn’t’ expect their offense to “tear it up”. I projected them 9th… and they are 9th. Their defense I projected 3rd… and they are 4th. What I think many of us expected was that with the additions of guys like Keith Deboo and Eddie Sullivan from Helena and Brad Thurber taking over at full-time quarterback… their offense would be FARRRRR more dangerous than it is. They are 9th as I projected… but there is a precipitous drop-off between 8 (Helena) and 9 (Great Falls). The pick up two of Helena’s three biggest offensive weapons from 2006… and Helena still doe A LOT better on offense… what up!?!? And defensively, although they are still 4th, disappointing blow-out losses to Bitterroot, who they swept in ’06 also suggests some serous underperforming. With Missoula and two key game against Helena, right now a team that was, in my mind a firm #2 in Montana, is not even guaranteed a playoff spot.
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 3-5.