AAA PLAYOFFS BY THE NUMBERS: 1 TEAM IN THE DRIVERS SEAT; 2 TEAMS “ON THE BUBBLE”, THREE TEAMS ALREADY ELIMINATED, 4 TEAMS BATTLING FOR FINAL 3 SPOTS, ONLY 6 GET IN…

Playoff Picture Analysis by: Jared Neumeier

Posted: Thursday, June 11, 2007

RMFL – With the final weekend to play, three playoff spots are up for grabs. 4 teams will be fighting for those cherished spots.

NO ONE wants their summer vacation to start… just yet.

Of course, the position of those 4 teams is dramatically different. The Idaho Falls Mustangs have but to win at home against the one-win Muddogs, while teams like the Pocatello Predators and Madison Lionz face top level opponents to earn their playoff spots and the Utah Heat must endure their longest road trip of the season, the third in as many weeks to have a chance to survive.

Introducing the NEW ERA of the RMFL… where parity no longer becomes a distant hope, but a present day reality. One could reasonably argue that the Utah Heat are one of the most dangerous teams heading into the playoffs… and they may not even make it into the top 6!

The line-up of games also makes this Saturday very interesting. There is a 3:00 p.m. game with all kinds of implications for a 7:00 p.m. game. At 3 p.m., the Utah Wolverines are at the Pocatello Predators. If the Wolverines win, the Cache Valley Bears will effectively clinch the #1 seed… whether they beat the Lionz or not… on the other hand, a Pocatello upset will MAKE the Bears have to win… (assuming the Rhino-Raiders beat the Seminoles) to claim the #1 seed. Interestingly, the Lionz are motivated by the same results. They, too would like to see the Wolverines win… which clinches them a playoff spot. A Pocatello victory and they will be thinking they MUST WIN… to make the playoffs. The Boise Speed can still bail them out with an upset over the Heat, however, if the Predators pull off a victory at 3:00 p.m., the Bears/Lionz tilt quadruples in play-off implications.

In each team scenario I will complete it with the statement “If all the favored teams should win”, this is not exactly a statement about my own personal predictions, I really have no idea how a few of these games will go. For the sake of argument, I’m assuming that higher ranked teams with better won-loss records will be assumed to defeat lower ranked teams with lesser won-loss records… even on the road. In this case, that means that these assumptions are built on the generic prediction that: Mustangs beat Muddogs, Rhinos beat Seminoles, Wolverines beat Predators, Heat beat Speed and Bears beat Lionz. And… maybe all of that will happen. And … maybe not.

The games are all 0-0 and the playoffs will be determined on the field… not in this article.

Let’s get right to it! Here’s a complete review, however, of where they all stand:

CACHE VALLEY BEARS (7-1): The Bears are EXACTLY “the team we thought they would be”!! They are also sitting in the prime spot for guaranteeing that the 2007 championship has to go through Logan, Utah for the first time in League History. All that stands in the way… is the Eastern Idaho Lionz. The Lionz did defeat the Bears last season to advance to the RMFL Championship game.. but barely. This is a new Bears team… and a different Lionz team. The Lionz have lost a star quarterback and the Bears have added one. A win for the Bears and they are #1… no matter what. A loss to the Lionz and they can still be #1 if… the Rhinos lose to the Seminoles (okay, not very likely) OR the Rhinos win (more likely) AND the Utah Wolverines win, too (also, fairly likely). The Bears hold a decided “points allowed” tie-breaker edge in the event of a 3-way tie with the Wolverines and Rhino-Raiders… which is what it would come down to since the Rhinos beat the Bears who beat the Wolverines who beat the Rhino-Raiders. This also means that the Bears can finish no worse than #2, no matter the scenario. IF ALL THE FAVORED TEAMS SHOULD WIN: #1.

UTAH WOLVERINES (6-2): The Utah Wolverines have really turned it around in 2007. They have always had good teams, however, this season, they stand to be in the best possible position EVER for a top playoff seed. All that stands in the way is the 4-4 Pocatello Predators. What is most scary about the Pocatello Predators is not so much their offense, which is improving, but that their defense just held the top ranked Utah Heat to 12 points. Its important to note, however, that they did give up a ton of yards to the Heat, so perhaps they got a little lucky that the Heat don’t have a place-kicker they trust, but it was an accomplishment and the Wolverines offense isn’t quite as dangerous. For the Wolverines, they can still mathematically get a #1 seed, that is if the Bears give up 50 something points to the Lionz and the Wolverines shut out the Predators AND the Rhino-Raiders win… but, realistically, the Wolverines are battling for a #2 seed… and, perhaps not to drop lower than #3. A victory over the Predators and a Bears victory gets them a #2 OR a victory over the Predators and a Rhino-Raiders loss gets them a #2. If there is a 3-way tie between them, the Bears and Rhino-Raiders at 7-2, they currently are far behind the Bears, but still 5 points ahead of the Rhino-Raiders. The Rhinos, however, are home against an offense that has struggled, while the Wolverines defense is on the road against an offense that has been improving. More than likely, the 3-way tie scenario would leave them at #3, unless they really shut down the Predators on the road. If the Wolverines should lose, they can actually still get a #2 seed; if the Rhino-Raiders lose (not likely), because in a multi-way tie with the Rhino-Raiders, Mustangs or Lionz, the Wolverines have a decided points allowed advantage. Likely, however, a loss and they will drop to at least #3, which would be hosting a first round home game… against, ironically, probably the same Predators who wouldn’t necessarily clinch with a victory, but would be in a very good position. IF ALL THE FAVORED TEAMS SHOULD WIN: #2 .

RHINO-RAIDERS (6-2): “Clinched the #1 seed. Will be off on June 24^th and open the playoffs at home on July 1^st against the lowest seeded survivor of the first round.” At least, this is what I wrote for the Rhino-Raiders this time last season. As we have all realized, however, by this time, that was definitely THEN and this is definitely NOW. The Rhino-Raiders, however, are still the champions and still have to be considered “the team to beat” regardless of where they end up in the playoffs. They have but to beat a dangerous Salt Lake Seminoles squad down in Salt Lake City and they actually have a decent shot at picking up the #1 seed. To do so, the Rhino-Raiders will have to become, however, Idaho fans. If the mild upsets of the Eastern Idaho Lionz over the Cache Valley Bears and the Pocatello Predators over the Utah Wolverines (both home games for the Idaho teams) can occur, the Rhino-Raiders will grab the #1 seed in a comeback no less amazing than last weekends big come-from-behind victory over the Lionz. If either Cache Valley or the Wolverines win, however, the Rhino-Raiders can do no better than #2. I think at this point, the Rhino-Raiders would be satisfied with a #2 seed so they can take their normal week off heading into the playoffs and open at home against a beat up team. That will only require that they win and the Utah Wolverines lose. If the Seminoles pull off the big upset over the Rhino-Raiders, they can fall as far as the #4 seed (if the Mustangs win and Lionz lose), and mathematically could fall as low as #5 (if Mustangs and Lionz both win AND the Rhino-Raiders give up a ton of points… not likely). IF ALL THE FAVORED TEAMS SHOULD WIN: #3

IDAHO FALLS MUSTANGS (5-3): Of all of the top teams in this analysis, I think the Mustangs have the most “Sure thing” victory. They will be home, playing a struggling 1-7 team and they Mustangs have been getting better and better by the week. I won’t even waste the ink on talking about “if they lose”, so if that doesn’t inspire the Muddogs, what will!??! With a home victory over the Muddogs, the Mustangs will put themselves in position to climb as high as a #2 seed. Of course for this to happen, they will need to shut out the Muddogs (likely) AND see the Wolverines give up 27 or more to the Predators AND the Rhino-Raiders give up 22 or more to the Seminoles, both in losing games. If either the Rhino-Raiders or Wolverines win in their games, which they would be favored in both, the Mustangs can finish no better than 4^th with a victory… but they are guaranteed a 4 seed and a first round home game. Mathematically, they can actually drop behind the Lionz, however, that would require them to give up at least 23 points to the Muddogs, while the Lionz were shutting out the Bears… but if they are capable of giving up that many to the Muddogs, they might just lose the game, and we agreed, we are not even going to discuss that as an option (actually, the Mustangs have not actually clinched a playoff spot, as a loss with the 3 teams behind them winning…and giving up enough points… would … well, never mind). So… if the Rhinos lose and Wolverines win, they are 3^rd, if both the Rhinos and Wolverines lose, they can get #2 if enough points are given up by those teams. Unless a major meltdown against the Muddogs or a major meltdown by either or both the Rhinos and Wolverines, they seem pretty locked in. IF ALL THE FAVORED TEAMS SHOULD WIN: #4.

EASTERN IDAHO LIONZ (5-3): After handing the game back to the Rhino-Raiders last Saturday night with less than a minute to go in the game, the Lionz have put themselves in a pretty precarious position. In one sense, they are squarely in the “drivers seat”. If they win, they are in. Also, if they win… and are in, they will almost definitely be the #5 seed (barring a major meltdown by the Mustangs). Their points allowed are just really too far greater than the Wolverines or Rhino-Raiders, so even though Mathematically they can go as high as #2, it would take a succession of miracles to turn that trick. So… more than likely, the Lionz just need to be concerning themselves with grabbing the #5 seed and getting a first round playoff game at Idaho Falls rather than heading down to Utah again to face the Wolverines or Rhino-Raiders. If the Lionz can pull off the mild upset of the Bears, expect them to take #5 and get a re-match with the Mustangs. If they lose, they could be eliminated IF both the Utah Heat and Pocatello Predators BOTH win. Right now the Heat have given up 31 less points than the Lionz, so a 3-way tie would advance the Heat right into the #5 spot, which would leave the Lionz battling the Predators for the #6. The Predators have an 8-point advantage over the Lionz and are certainly playing a less explosive overall offense (the Bears are ranked #2 and the Wolverines are ranked #4). Not to say that the Wolverines won’t score more than the Bears on Saturday, however, the likelihood of scoring 8 more than the Bears just isn’t a comfortable proposition. Of course, the Lionz would be greatly aide if the Wolverines simply beat the Predators, as they should be favored, albeit slightly. The Lionz are in if either the Predators or Heat lose. The interesting thing on Saturday is that the Lionz game will be the last game to start. By the time the Lionz kick-off, the Wolverines/Predators game will be over… and the Heat and Speed will have played for almost a half. They will have a pretty good idea of where they stand… and what they will need to do. IF ALL THE FAVORED TEAMS SHOULD WIN: #6

POCATELLO PREDATORS (4-4): Right now, the Pocatello Predators absolutely control their own destiny. If they beat the Wolverines and don’t give up more than 7 points… NO MATTER WHAT everyone else does, they are in the playoffs. Even if they win and give up more than 7 points, they are most likely in… unless the Eastern Idaho Lionz pull off the real coupe and shut down the big time passing attack of the Cache Valley Bears up in Ashton Saturday night. At the end of this paragraph, however, when I do my If all the favored teams should win statement, I’m going to have them on the outside.. looking in, for one small fact. They may beat the Wolverines, but they certainly shouldn’t be favored to do so. The Wolverines come into the game after a big victory over the Rhino-Raiders and an easy home victory over the Speed. The Wolverines sport the #4 offense and #3 defense. Pocatello boasts but the #7 offense and #6 defense. What the Predators do have, however, are two additional factors… momentum and home field advantage. But will it be enough? The Predators could actually qualify with a loss. IF the Utah Heat lose, the Predators are in, no matter what. The problem is two-fold. First, the Heat game doesn’t start until after the Predators game is over. Second, who really thinks the Speed will beat the Heat?!?! If you’re a Predator, you won’t be counting on that, even though it is a long road game and the Speed still do have some quality players. The Predators, however, did just beat the Heat, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Todd Rietmann and the Speed haven’t been on Pocatello’s Travis Hobson’s speed dial all week, giving them tape and scouting reports… just to be sure. Regardless of all results, the Predators will be playing for the #6… which is very likely… if they can beat the Wolverines at home. IF ALL THE FAVORED TEAMS SHOULD WIN: #7 (missing playoffs).

UTAH HEAT (4-4): If, for whatever reason, the Heat do not make the playoffs, I’ll go on a limb and suggest that this is the best team in RMFL history to not have qualified for the playoffs…. This also means that the AAA must have had some great football and some great parity in 2007. A win by the Heat does NOT guarantee they are in. The Heat can go to Boise and blow out the Speed and still finish out of the playoff race. One thing is for sure, though, if the Heat should lose, they ARE out. So… the Heat need: 1) to win and 2) a Pocatello loss OR an Eastern Idaho loss. Pocatello can still win and it won’t affect them at all, as long as the Lionz lose as well. The Pocatello game will happen before theirs, but that really isn’t the key game for them. Remember, if they lose to Boise, they are done anyway, no matter what happens in that game. Their key game is the Lionz and Bears (I am assuming, of course, that the 5-3 Mustangs will beat the Muddogs and have no potential of being factored into a 5-4 tie-breaker). The Lionz/Bears game kicks off after theirs does. Now, of course if the Predators should lose, then they just have to win and their in, but we are already assuming they will win. If Pocatello beats the Wolverines, then the Heat could still win… and be eliminated, if the Lionz upset the Bears. The most likely scenario for the Heat to win (as we are assuming) and still miss the playoffs, is if the Lionz win. Regardless, Pocatello takes the “Heat” off the Heat and the Wolverines are the favored team… therefore… IF ALL THE FAVORED TEAMS SHOULD WIN: #5.

SALT LAKE SEMINOLES (2-6): Out. Can drop Rhino-Raiders as far as a #4 seed with a win, not to mention, turn a disappointing season into a raucous final party!

MUDDOGS (1-7):. Out. Can knock Mustangs down to a #5 seed with a win… or out of the playoffs entirely with a scoring fest in Idaho Falls. Is this where the “Shock the League”?

.BOISE SPEED (0-8): Out. Playing for pride and to help their buddies, the Pocatello Predators to get in. The Speed should have the personnel to pull off the home upset, they just haven’t played up to their potential all season, so its not expected here. Probably headed for AA in 2008 even with a win… so, why not?