AAA MID-SEASON REPORT CARD TIME!!

OVER-ACHIEVING LIONZ, HEAT TO SEE TOUGHEST PART OF SCHEDULE TO COME; FIVE TEAMS COULD STILL GRAB #1 SEED!

Feature Story by: Jared Neumeier

RMFL – Each year on or about mid-season, I have attempted to review the success, or lack thereof, of all of the RMFL teams with respect to what we had expected of them before the season even began.  I have called this feature our “mid-season report cards”.  Obviously, a team’s grade is very much affected by the expected position before the season even started. If a team was expected to do well, and they do well, they are still unlikely to earn an “A” grade, which I reserve for teams that actually over-achieve even beyond expectations.  So, if you play on one of the teams that has done quite well, but does not get an “A” grade, try no to take it too personally.

As with the AA Report Cards, I’m about a week past “mid-season”, so in addition to the Report Card grade, I will also project a finish for the final games of  the season and even comment on playoff positioning, if its applicable.

The Eastern Idaho Lionz changed their name, lost 3 key defensive players to the Mustangs and a top receiver to the Predators and end up with the best start since an undefeated 2003, Troy Dougherty’s first season.  The Utah Heat have been a mild surprise , playing the Bears and Wolverines pretty tough and getting a big home victory over the Idaho Falls Mustangs.  The Lionz have probably their three biggest challenges (Bears, Rhinos and Mustangs) remaining on their schedule, however, and the Heat have the toughest remaining schedule of all with all of their long road games to come, including games vs. the Rhino-Raiders and Lionz, currently #1 and #2 in the AAA.

The Bears tough loss to the Rhino-Raiders aside, remain in prime position to grab the #1 seed and the Wolverines and Mustangs look to have all the pieces in place to beat any of the other top teams.  Speaking of which, the Rhino-Raiders loss couldn’t be considered a shock and it in no way takes away from the fact that they remain the “Defending Champions” and the team to beat… on any week.  They continue to have the offensive weapons and defense to win out.

It does appear as if the Muddogs, Speed and Seminoles, however, have slipped and might only be able to play the spoiler role coming down the remainder of the schedule.  Its hard to suggest that the Predators have underachieved thus far, being picked #7 and out of the playoffs, however, I believe that more was expected of them still. They do, however, seem to be getting it together and should challenge for a #6 seed.    If the Heat travel well, #6 is the lowest seed they will get. If they don’t travel well, it will be the Heat that the Predators will likely unseat for the final playoff spot of the current list of leaders.

Once again, this feature is strictly to stimulate discussion, message board fodder or simply bring forth information not everyone readily knew. Take it for what its worth… Obviously, this is just a “mid-term”... final grades don’t come out until early July… when Championships are won… or lost.

EASTERN IDAHO LIONZ (5-0): A

Although the combined record of the Lionz first 5 opponents is 6-19 and they did not beat a team with a winning record until they defeated a tough Wolverine team by a single point on the last play of the game… at home. There is no way to not award this undefeated team an A grade after starting the season perfect.  Wins on the road against any opponent in the AAA are not that easy to come by and the Lionz survived them all.  Losing theirs… and the league’s MVP in Troy Dougherty as well as a number of very good players to other teams, this year set up to be a big let down year for the Lionz after two straight trips to the RMFL Championship.  Their final 4 games, however, are against arguably the best remaining 4 teams in the league. They could lose all 4, they certainly aren’t likely to win all 4!

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 6-3

 

UTAH HEAT (3-2) : B+

Other than their big home win over the Mustangs, the 2007 season, thus far, has pretty much run according to what I could have expected.  That home win, however, earns them the “+”.  They won that game despite an incorrect ruling by the game officials that gave the Mustangs a touchdown that should have been simply a Heat possession.  So far, so good for the Heat.  It will be their remaining games that will determine if this team is really for real, or not.  There are at the Rhino-Raiders, their longest road game so far… then 3 trips into Idaho to close out the season.  They are the only team that started with 4 home games and then didn’t have a long road trip until June.  They needed to use that to build momentum to carry them on the road.  IF they can, they will be a playoff team. And possibly a home seed.  They have shown flashes that indicate they are good enough to win ALL 4 games… however, getting the boys to travel to Boise, Sugar City and Pocatello on consecutive weeks will be very tough.  They could win all 4, lose all 4 or something in between….

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 5-4

 

UTAH WOLVERINES (3-2): B+

This Wolverine team was headed for A++ territory until losing quarterback, Dean Fountaine, who was having a career year before suffering a season-ending knee injury against the Cache Valley Bears.  They had not only gone undefeated before that fateful game, they were beating up good opponents… by  A LOT of points!  49-14 vs. the Mustangs, 49-8 vs. the Muddogs and 35-7 against the Utah Heat.  The Heat game was close at the half and the Muddogs have been the biggest underperformers in the AAA thus far, but the Mustang game was significant.  However, even without Fountaine, they were within a touchdown of beating the Bears until the final minute of that game… and they shoulda, woulda, coulda beat the Lionz on the road.  All three of the 3-2 teams are extremely dangerous for the teams above them (Lionz, Rhinos and Bears).  Any one of these teams, including the Wolverines have what it takes to run the table to the #1 seed yet.  The Wolverines have two potential “gimmee” left (Seminoles, Speed), and two big tests (Rhinos, Predators).  I think they are good enough, even without Fountaine, to win 3 of them, but not all.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 6-3

 

CACHE VALLEY BEAR (4-1): B

Some of the significant improvements in the Utah Wolverirnes and Utah Heat, notwithstanding, you had to figure that the Cache Valley Bears would be 4-1 at this point or 5-0 anyway.  Since I projected them #1, perhaps it might be suggested that a B- or C+ grade is more appropriate, however, I still think they have proven to be the best team in the league right now…even with the one loss to the Rhinos.  They look to finish with the #1 defense again and their offense even looks better than last season.  In the Rhino-Raider game, they more than doubled up the Rhinos in total net offensive yards.  The Heat and Wolverine victories were a lot BIGGER wins than I would have thought in pre-season and they are winning games by bigger margins than thought.  Their biggest problem might be that they have 4 straight Idaho games to finish. Two of them (Boise and Eastern Idaho) in Idaho, with the ever dangerous Idaho Falls and Pocatello visiting them.  Again, if they take any of these games lightly… or don’t travel well to Boise, they could potentially lose them all.  If you think you can look past that and put the Pocatello and Boise game “in the books” as it were, the question will be can they beat both the Mustangs AND the Lionz on the road.  The safe bet is that they win out, but I’ll hedge and suggest they play down to at least one of them.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD:  7-2

 

IDAHO FALLS MUSTANGS (3-2): B

Ordinarily, having just beaten a team that hasn’t lost a league game since Y2K should get an immediate a from any grader… however, one cannot forget two very disappointing road trips and two very disheartening losses.  Obviously, however, both the Wolverines and Heat have both proved to be two of the “better than expected” and either is perfectly capable of winning an RMFL championship.  Base on all of that, even after a rough start, the Mustangs  seem to find themselves in a pretty good condition… and, after beating the Rhino’s (albeit a bit short-handed Rhino’s), these Mustangs have to feel capable of beating anyone… and perhaps winning out.  I had pre-ranked them a solid #3 before the season and very early that ranking looked to be the worst of all.  I do believe, however, they have found the final pieces to solve their defensive woes and are a decent bet to win the rest of their games, even with the Lionz and Bears still on the schedule.  At then end of the season, they might be a “A” team, until they prove they can beat Eastern Idaho, however…

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD:  6-3

 

RHINO-RAIDERS (4-1): B-

Since I had the Rhinos at #2 pre-season and they have only lost the one game, and have beaten #1 (Cache Valley), it could easily be argued that they have certainly earned at least the “B” grade for “doing what was expected”. However, what alarms me more than their record or who they have beaten, or not, is that their offense just doesn’t seem the same yet.  I say this even though they have the league’s leading rusher in Justin Oswald. Oswald leads all AAA rushers… by A LOT.  So… what’s the problem.  The Rhino-Raiders who have seemed to be capable in the past at putting up 3 scores on any given team before halftime, just no longer seem capable.  Oswald is grinding out the yards and Stireman is making some plays, but with Greenberry not at 100% and Justin Defour being very good, but not Trevor Bell, and certainly is not benefiting by a healthy Greenberry on the other side, the Rhino-Raider offense is struggling more now than ever in their amazing championship run.  Since they still have the parts and pieces to win out and capture another title, they will be a home seed in the playoffs, however, with their next 3 games against the Heat, Wolverines and the Lionz, I can’t see them winning them all.  All three of these teams have proven to have more explosive offenses… so far.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 7-2

 

SALT LAKE SEMINOLES (1-4): B-

Obviously, many can and could reasonably argue that after winning their first game, a long road trip to Boise, this picked last place team, should grade out at no worse than a B… maybe even better.  Now, I would buy into that argument except for the fact that the Boise Speed are getting the worst grade of all.  So… the big win at Boise gets tainted a bit by the fact that the Speed have not turned into the team they were expected to be… at all.  Further, the Seminoles have had frequent reports of uniform violations; one of the big concerns for them coming in was not so much their competitiveness as their organization.  Of course, this shouldn’t count against them for the mid-season report card, after all, instead of ranking 10th in both offense and defense, they are actually 9th in offense and 8th in defense. But, as I said, they are only out-ranking the two biggest under-performers (thus far) and need to shore up their organization to become a legitimate AAA level RMFL franchise. With 3 of their last 4 against the Wolverines, Mustangs and Rhinos, even though they are better than most every expected, it will be difficult to see them winning any more than one more game… a home game against the reeling Muddogs.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 2-7

 

POCATELLO PREDATORS (2-3): C+

This is another one of those grades that probably appears unreasonably low… especially considering this was a pre-season ranked 7th team.  I believe, however, they have underperformed on both offense and defense all season.  Their two victories have come against offensively challenged and struggling Boise (0-5) and a talented, but inconsistent Seminoles team (1-4) at home.  They did play the Lionz pretty tough on the road, however, their 40-15 home loss to the Mustangs is what slips them out of the B range for mid-season.  The defense actually did okay holding the Rhinos offense to only 21, however, after the Rhinos were shut down to 7 in Idaho Falls, a supposedly lesser offense, it kind of takes away some of the luster from that effort.  The Predators did get Jeff Belnap back, however, they appear to be unwilling to play him and I don’t see that boding well for their playoff chances.  I think Jordan Peterson will be a solid qb in the RMFL some day, but with 3 touchdown passes against 8 interceptions so far… that day isn’t today.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 4-5

 

MUDDOGS (0-5): C-

Of course, by now, everyone knows that the Muddogs lost All-star MVP quarterback, Jordan Kjar, early in the first game of the season.  However, what everyone does not know is What the heck happened to the rest of the team!??   A team will obviously struggle a bit with such a key loss to the most important position on the football field, however, as good as Kjar was, he didn’t play defense.  This was a good defensive team in ’06.  This is a team that beat the Vipers twice with much the same personnel. You know the Vipers, they beat the Utah Wolverines in a pre-season game this season… with pretty much the same players.  The Wolverines did play a lot of reserves, however, the Vipers kept up with the starters anyway.  Point is… the Muddogs are supposed to be a lot better.  Seeing back up quarterback, Matt Thornton come back from injury will help, however, Thornton is also an important receiver.  The Muddogs are ranked 10th in offense and 10th in defense and were shelled by the Bears.  They’ve given up an average of more than 50 points in every game!  Oh for the days of the undefeated AA run!  The Muddogs do have Boise and Salt Lake remaining on their schedule so they certainly will have a couple of chances to win games and avoid just returning to the AA in ’08… but, based on the performance thus far, I’m not counting on it.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 0-9

 

BOISE SPEED (0-5): D+

Somebody actually picked this 0-5 team as a play-off team in 2007.  Someone got that one wrong.  Mathematically, they can win out and still make the playoffs… however, that would require they beat the Cache Valley Bears at home…and the Utah Wolverines in Utah.  Their other two remaining games are at the Muddogs and home against the Heat.  Those games are a little more winnable, the Heat mostly because it’s the Heats last of three long road trips and will likely not be anywhere near full strength.  On the other hand, there is no reason to take a savvy, desperate, Muddog team lightly either. I’m sure they want to get past their freakish struggles in the AAA and have a return shot in ’08. In other words, Boise could lose their remaining 4 games pretty easily, too.  The reason for these low marks is that expectations VERY FAR exceeded performance.  I had pre-ranked them with the 4th best defense in the AAA… well, they are ranked 9th!  I gave their offense the benefit of the doubt vis-à-vis the other AAA  offenses. I ranked them 6th. They are 8th.  They have a great field, a great sponsor and improved organization, however, it has just not translated to success on the field.  Unlike the Muddogs, the Speed have competed pretty well in just about every game… however, unlike the Muddogs, they don’t have as much of an excuse… however, I am surprised not to see a whole lot of Dane Knickrehm or Zac Jockumsen in their game reports… perhaps missing from the “story behind the story” of why this team has fallen on such hard times?

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 2-7