WHILE MOST OF THE RMFL VACATIONS… ITS SHOWDOWN WEEKEND IN THE NORTHERN CONFERENCE

MONTANA – While there are 18 teams that have the entire Memorial Day weekend off, there are 4 teams playing probably their biggest games of the entire RMFL season.

It’s showdown time in Montana.

NOT only are the two scheduled games pitting the top 4 teams of the conference together…

NOT only are these game pitting the closest geographic and emotional rivals together…

BUT these two games could change the entire play-off outlook and either solidify the final play-off puzzle… or make it as murky as cattle dung at the bottom of a shallow watering hole.

Two teams are playing for survival. Two teams are playing to clinch.

If the two teams with their backs against the wall can come out swinging… and pick up the win; the tables could be turned.

HELENA TITANS (4-2) at GREAT FALLS GLADIATORS (4-3)

With the magic number for wins to get into the playoffs inexorably set at 5, even with a 4-3 mark, the Great Falls Gladiators, who have been door mats of the North for several years now, must believe they need one more win to qualify for their first ever play-offs. They must do it against a team they have never beaten, the Helena Titans.

The BAD news for the Gladiators is that the first contest, dropped to the Titans by a 27-17 score, wasn’t even that close… and since then, the Titans are better, particularly offensively.

The GOOD NEWS??? The Gladiators are home…and they could never be more motivated. A victory all but ensures the Gladiators a playoff spot…and even, a possible playoff home game.

In the first meeting this season, although the Gladiators stayed with the Titans most of the way… tied 10-10 at the half, with the Titans not really pulling away until Jeremiah Clement recovered a bad Gladiator snap in the end zone to push a 13-10 lead to 20-10 later in the third quarter, the Gladiator offense could only muster 85 total net yards of offense on the day against only an average Titan defense. Since that time, the Titan defense has improved and most certainly has their offense behind newly installed quarterback, Brian Gutierrez.

To add fuel to the fire, the Gladiators are just coming off a 27-0 road thumping at the hands of the Missoula Raptors and the Titans are sitting high after a big win over Bitterroot and a 56-0 showing against an improved Glacier Knight team.

The Gladiators defense behind emerging superstar, Mike Rhode, will have to play their most inspired game of the season… and the Gladiator offensive line is going to have to open up some holes for Sterling Wynn and give Robert Cook time to throw.

IF THE GLADIATORS WIN: They clinch a playoff spot, and, in fact, still have a mathematical shot at the #1 seed. They hold head to head tie-breaker edge over Bitterroot and will have given up less points than Helena. Since neither Helena nor Bitterroot can’t both win more than 5 games, the Gladiators should finish no worse than 3^rd. They are in. Helena, on the other hand, having given up the most points would need a Missoula victory over Bitterroot to make the playoffs. If Helena loses and Bitterroot beats Missoula, at least 4 teams will have won at least 5 games (assuming Helena could pull off the final regular season victory over Missoula) and Helena would lose the ultimate tie-breaker… points allowed. If Helena loses and Missoula beats Bitterroot, then Helena can still make the playoffs with a victory over Missoula in the last game. To Summarize: A Gladiator win… and they are in. Helena then becomes big Missoula fans… for a few hours.

IF HELENA WINS: They clinch a playoff spot. They would have 5 wins and the Gladiators would finish with 4. No matter what happens in the other game or the last week, Helena is in. They could even grab the #1 seed if they beat the Gladiators and Bitterroot beats Missoula; and then Helena beats Missoula in the final game. That is still a carrot that dangles in front of a Helena team that has struggled at times, particularly offensively this season. If Helena wins, the Gladiators suddenly become VERY avid Raptor fans. If they lose to Helena, they can still clinch a play-off spot with a Bitterroot loss. Having defeated the Blaze in both contests this season, the Gladiators would win the first tie-breaker, head-to-head if the Blaze should also finish 4-4. If the Gladiators lose, however, and the Blaze win, the Gladiators would REQUIRE a big, unexpected upset by the Glacier Knights over Bitterroot in the finale to avoid elimination. For assumptions and scenarios sake, the Gladiators may assume that a loss to Helena and a Bitterroot victory later that night… and their summer may begin early.

MISSOULA RAPTORS (5-1) at BITTERROOT BLAZE (3-3)

What is extremely interesting about this 7:00 p.m. tilt is not only the desperation the Blaze find themselves in this do-or-die contest with the team many of their players played for in 2005, but that this game takes place after the first game has completed. These teams will know the results of the first game and will know where they stand. If they find out that the Gladiators have lost, the Raptors mathematically clinch a playoff spot without playing. If the Gladiators beat Helena, the Raptors know that if they beat the Blaze, they will clinch the #1 seed with a victory over Bitterroot.

A Helena victory turns the game into an automatic elimination game for the Blaze. A Gladiator victory, and the Blazes cause gets a little less desperate.

The Blaze, however, have the confidence of knowing that they won the first contest with the Raptors. That was the game, you may recall, that star tailback, Justin Nixon broke the rushing record that he had just broken earlier in the season. Nixon ran loose for 259 yards on 35 carries to carry the Blaze to a 16-7 victory on the Raptor home field. If the Raptors are going to be thinking about a #1 seed, they will have to figure out a way to stop Nixon.

If rumors circulating around the Blaze camp, that Raptor star tailback, Gavin Johnson, will not be available for the game, the Raptors may have to rely even more on the right arm of quarterback, Shane Jurasek. Jurasek, a journeyman quarterback, who is in his 6^th season in the RMFL, playing for Great Falls, Helena and now Missoula, may have to use his experience to keep the Raptor offense going. In the first contest, Jurasek did pass for 176 yards and the Raptors only score, but was also picked off twice and sacked 3 times.

A game that will truly match up best along the line of scrimmage, however. If the Raptors can force their ex-quarterback, Buckie Brawley to have to beat them, they feel pretty good about clinching the conference title, however, if they cannot figure out a way to keep Justin Nixon from running free, this could be a difficult game for the defending state champions from Missoula, Montana.

IF THE BLAZE WIN: The Blaze do not officially clinch a playoff spot. They would still need to “take care of business” against the Glacier Knights in their final week and the Knights have generally proven to be no pushover. In fact, even two final victories by the Blaze do not mathematically guarantee them a playoff spot. Although, they hold a decided advantage in the ultimate points allowed tie-breaker if it came down to that in a multiple team tie-breaker scenario. A Blaze win simply makes tables the settling of the playoff picture. Missoula could still take the #1 seed by defeating Helena in their final game and the Blaze may just have to hold of un-corking the Champaign until they are able to pull off a victory over the Knights. Perhaps the most significant part of a Blaze victory is that it would eliminate the Titans or Gladiators from any real hope of a playoff chance if they lost earlier that day (assuming the Blaze go on to defeat Glacier). Of course, it also keeps the Blaze alive in the event Helena had won earlier that day.

IF THE RAPTORS WIN: The Raptors would all but clinch the #1 seed. Even if they should lose to Helena in the finale, they would have to have given up an impossible to imagine amount of points in their final two games vis a vis the Titans before the Titans could catch them for the #1 at 6-2. So, for arguments sake, a Raptor win… and they are #1. Further, a Raptor win combined with a Titan win, eliminates the Blaze and the playoff picture is completely settled. IF the Raptors and Titans both win on Saturday, the Raptors would be #1, Helena would be #2 and Great Falls would be #3 regardless of the outcome of the final games (pretty much; assuming the unrealistic point swing between Helena and Missoula). If the Raptors win and Great Falls won earlier that day, then the Blaze could still qualify with a victory over Glacier and a Missoula victory over Helena in their finale.

No matter how you slice it… a lot is at stake this weekend in the north Country. While you are all camped out near your favorite fishing hole, don’t forget there are teams absolutely fighting for their play-off lives Saturday under that Big (Montana) Sky.