ITS ‘’GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS” TIME FOR 4 PLAYOFF CONTENDERS; POCATELLO, BOISE, WOLVERINES AND HEAT TO BATTLE FOR FINAL TWO AAA SPOTS

RMFL – With the final weekend to play, two playoff spots are up for grabs. 4 teams will be fighting for those cherished spots.

NO ONE wants their summer vacation to start… just yet.

Although, all of the teams involved have losing records, all 4 are quality AAA teams that, in any other year, would have a winning record and simply be battling for position right now.

But this is the NEW RMFL with an entire new division of quality teams… called AAA. What was a guarantee in the past is now a difficult goal.

More difficult for some, at this point, than others.

So who’s got it tough and who can be confident? There’s good news and not so good news for all the teams involved. Only Pocatello is seemingly in a “preferred position”, but they all must win it on the field Saturday, or spend the rest of the off-season wondering “what if”…

Here’s a complete review, however, of where they all stand:

OGDEN RHINO-RAIDERS (8-0): Clinched the #1 seed. Will be off on June 24^th and open the playoffs at home on July 1^st against the lowest seeded survivor of the first round.

CACHE VALLEY BEARS (7-1): The Bears can do no worse than the #3 seed, but they can end up #3. If the Madison Lionz win and the Bears are upset by the desperate Wolverines, the Lionz will capture the true #2 seed by virtue of a strength of schedule advantage over the Bears who they did not face during the regular season. The Bears cannot finish 1^st. A Bears victory or an Idaho Falls victory over Madison secures them as the #2 seed. Regardless, they will open the playoffs at home on June 24^th. Holding the #2 seed would guarantee that if they win on June 24^th, they would be home for the semi-final game as well.

IDAHO FALLS MUSTANGS (6-2): The Mustangs cannot mathematically get any higher than the #3 seed… or any lower than the #4 seed. A victory over the Madison Lionz on Saturday captures the Northern division crown and gives them a week off on June 24^th. For any team getting ready for a big playoff game, this would come as a big advantage. Its as simple as that, no calculators needed on this one. Idaho Falls wins, they are #3, off for June 24^th. As the #3, if Cache Valley is upset in the first round, they would be home on July 1^st. IF the Bears prevail, the #3 would go to Logan to play Cache Valley on July 1^st. If the Mustangs lose, they would drop to the #4 seed and have a home playoff game on June 24^th against the #5 seed.

MADISON LIONZ (6-2): The Madison Lionz can still capture the #2 seed. If they can gain some revenge on the Idaho Falls Mustangs who beat them in the opening game of the regular season AND the Utah Wolverines can find a way to beat the Cache Valley Bears, the Lionz will get not only a week off, but a home playoff game on July 1^st. The Lionz could also win, coupled with an expected Bears victory and the Lionz would still get the opening round off, but could possibly have to travel to open the playoffs if the Bears go on to win the opening round at home. A Lionz loss gets them a home playoff game for sure, but they would not get the week off of June 24^th. Probably the biggest motivation for the Lionz would be that Idaho Falls is their arch-Nemesis and they owe some payback from the first game. Regardless, the game sets up to not only be an emotion-packed barn-burner, it will be for the North Division Championship and an extra all-star in the 9^th annual All-Star Classic

UTAH WOLVERINES (3-5): The Good news? If they win, they are a playoff team with the #5 seed. The bad news? If they lose, they would need both a Salt Lake win and a Utah Heat loss to make the playoffs. The Wolverines have their destiny in their own hands. They simply must beat the Cache Valley Bears and they will have earned their way in to the 2006 RMFL playoffs. They can still qualify with a loss, however, but they will have to count on the Heat losing to the Rhinos… which is quite possible AND a Salt Lake Nemesis victory over visiting Boise… which is an absolute toss-up. For the sake of argument, its reasonable to assume that the Predators will win their home game against the proud and brave 13 or 14 Idaho Matadors. This puts up the first of the final spot competitors with 4 wins. The Heat cannot win 4, so only the Predators, Wolverines and Roughriders are competing for this derby. If the Wolverines win 4, they have the strength of schedule advantage over both Boise and Pocatello and would garner the #5 spot. If the Wolverines lose, and assuming Pocatello does win, the Wolverines would be competing for the #6 spot against perhaps the Heat and perhaps Boise. If the Wolverines lose and Boise wins, its over. They fall a game short. IF, however, Boise is beat by Salt Lake and the Wolverines lose, they hold the strength of schedule advantage over the Roughriders. However, they do NOT have a strength of schedule advantage over the Heat. Although they have beaten the Heat twice, a 3-way tie with the Roughriders would throw the playoff scenario immediately into a strength of schedule issue. Of course, this only becomes an issue for the Wolverines IF… and that’s a pretty big IF, the Heat beat the Rhino-Raiders. So, for thw Wolverines, WIN and they are #5 and would head to either Idaho Falls or Madison to open the playoffs. Lose, and they still get in if Boise and the Heat lose.

BOISE ROUGHRIDERS (3-5):. Even after losing to the Predators last week, the Roughriders seemingly have their destiny still in their own hands. IF they can count on the Cache Valley Bears to do what they have been doing all season… win, then all they need to do is to travel well… to Orem, Utah, and beat a 1-7 team to qualify for the playoffs. Boise, however, has a history of NOT traveling well…. And therein, may lie the crux of the issue. The other hard spot is that the Nemesis are a lot better than their 1-7 record would indicate. Remember, 4 of those losses came against the Rhinos and Bears. They also lost at Pocatello.. barely. IF, the Roughriders can count on a Wolverine loss, all they need to do is win Saturday and they would qualify at the #6 seed. Of course, if their neighbors from Kuna, the Idaho Matadors, could be counted on to defeat the Predators, they could actually go as high as #5, but for the sake of argument, lets assume they would be happy with a win over the Nemesis and a re-match with the Cache Valley Bears on the field turf in Logan, Utah on June 24^th. On the other hand, a loss, and the Roughriders are most assuredly eliminated for certain. If the Wolverines pull off the upset, however, and Pocatello wins, Boise would also be eliminated. Both Pocatello and Boise would lose on strength of schedule to the Wolverines and the Roughriders would then lose the tie-breaker with the Predators on head-to-had losses.

POCATELLO PREDATORS (3-5): Don’t look now, but here come the Predators… stalking a playoff spot. With the end of the season fall-out in Kuna, the regular season finale for the Predators might end up being little more than a late season tune-up for the playoffs; and the Predators are more than ready for the challenge. A victory by the Predators and they are in the playoffs. A victory and a Wolverine loss and they are the #5 seed and will play at the loser of the Idaho Falls/Madison game on June 24^th. Of course, a loss on Saturday and all bets are off, however, this Predator team should be able to get a “W” against the fearless bunch from western Idaho who are making a name for themselves with some great ironman play. If the Predators pull of the victory, they then become very interested in the outcome of the Wolverines at Cache Valley. IF they should somehow lose, then the Boise at Salt Lake game is meaningful, but that likelihood is probably not real enough to even spend the print on it that I already have. Poky is in with a win… its just a matter of whether the Wolverines can fight their way in and snatch the #5 seed and steal the local rematch from them.

UTAH HEAT (2-6): Yes. The good news is… they are still alive… but they are on life support. First of all, they MUST beat the Rhino-Raiders. If you don’t believe that can happen, you can stop reading NOW… What?!?!?! Still here?? Well then, you ARE an optimist!! Okay, I’ll bite. IF they beat the Rhino-Raiders, then all they need are two things… the Nemesis MUST beat the Roughriders AND the Bears MUST beat the Wolverines. The Heat actually would have a strength of schedule advantage over both the Roughriders and Wolverines. And would be #1 in a 3-way tie with those teams (or a 4-way if Pocatello was in it). That is it. However, they MUST beat the Ogden Rhino-Raiders to do it. IF they do that, and somehow the other chips don’t seem to fall into place, perhaps we all may just have to create a 7^th playoff spot, because the Utah Heat will have certainly earned it.

SALT LAKE NEMESIS (1-7): Out. Playing for pride and to help their buddies, the Utah Wolverines to get in. No one wants to finish a season with a loss.

IDAHO MATADORS (1-7): Out. Playing for pride and to help their buddies, the Boise Roughriders get in. No one wants to finish the season with a blowout loss.