AAA MID-SEASON REPORT CARD TIME!!

RHINO-RAIDERS, MUSTANGS, HEAT, LIONZ AHEAD OF THE CURVE… ELSEWISE DISAPPOINTING SEASONS ABOUND AROUND THE AAA AT THE MID POINT!

Feature Story by: Jared Neumeier

RMFL – Each year on or about mid-season, I have attempted to review the success, or lack thereof, of all of the RMFL teams with respect to what we had expected of them before the season even began.  I have called this feature our “mid-season report cards”.  Obviously, a team’s grade is very much affected by the expected position before the season even started. If a team was expected to do well, and they do well, they are still unlikely to earn an “A” grade, which I reserve for teams that actually over-achieve even beyond expectations.  So, if you play on one of the teams that has done quite well, but does not get an “A” grade, try no to take it too personally.

As with the AA Report Cards, I’m about a week past “mid-season”, so in addition to the Report Card grade, I will also project a finish for the final three games of  the season and even comment on playoff positioning, if its applicable.

The Rhino-Raiders lose players… but still win games and the Mustangs continue to win despite seemingly slowing down on defense and even losing a key player to season-ending injury.  These are the teams drawing the highest marks and are steam-rolling towards high playoff seeds. I had pre-season ranked the Rhino-Raiders 2nd and the Mustangs 5th, both have exceeded those projections… thus far.

Down at the bottom of the heap has to be the currently most under-achieving team in the AAA, the Pocatello Predators who restored a solid line in front of some of the best skills players in the RMFL and yet have struggled at times offensively; now their defense is getting rung up… And all other teams fall somewhere in between, including a Utah Heat team that was making some noise with two straight victories to look like contenders. The Heat, however, with only those two wins, now must finish with the toughest schedule in the RMFL: Cache Valley, Madison and the Ogden Rhino-Raiders… Ouch!

Once again, this feature is strictly to stimulate discussion, message board fodder or simply bring forth information not everyone readily knew. Take it for what its worth… Obviously, this is just a “mid-term”... final grades don’t come out until early July… when Championships are won… or lost.

OGDEN RHINO-RAIDERS (6-0): A

Everyone knew that the defending champion, Ogden Rhino-Raiders were going to lose some great players and talent to the newly forming Cache Valley Bears and most people knew that the “Rhino second stringers could beat everyone else’s first team” was more of a Rhino-Raider intimidation strategy than any kind of reality.  Well, the Ogden owner and head coach, Dave Stireman, knew it as well and sought out to successfully recruit the defensive coordinator of the disbanding Wasatch Wildcats, Everest Matagi, who, in turn, helped take care of the rest.  What emerged was a “new” Rhino team… particularly a new defensive team that might be every bit as dominating as the old Rhino defense.  The commitment they have gotten from these transferring players and the level of play they are turning in has for exceeded my expectations… and probably many others as well.  The Rhinos have always been a great offensive team, now Matagi and the defense are becoming the story more and more every week.  Which all begs the following question, “where would this team be had the Wildcats not folded”?  The league will never know and fortunately for the big red machine, the parts are once again there for a championship run!.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 9-0

 

IDAHO FALLS MUSTANGS (4-2) : B+

I actually had this grade and ranking set in this article before the Cache Valley debacle.  However, it should probably be noted that the Mustangs competed better than the score, despite a short-handed roster.  Of course, Cache Valley was also missing perhaps their best two defensive linemen to league suspension, so we may have to wait until the playoffs to realize how these teams would do at full strength each.  The Mustangs, however, picked up the big win in Madison the first game of the season. That alone is worth high marks.  It is difficult, however, to explain the 10-7 loss to the Roughriders except that it was a long road game against a quality team.  Perhaps the Roughriders are a bit better than people expected.  Donavan Ard is having a fine season, Travis Boden is leading the league in rushing..again and Brandon Reed is proving what being the fastest man in the RMFL can mean.   When at full strength defensively, this team is solid top to bottom.   If the Mustangs can get a full squad out each week, it would be surprising that they are not in the final 4.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 6-3

 

UTAH HEAT (2-4): B+

As I mentioned in the intro article, after upending the Nemesis and then going on the long road trip and taking down the Matadors, the Heat looked like world-beaters.  However, I believed they really needed to win the Wolverine game to have a solid shot at the playoffs.  They are still a lot better than I pre-season projected, no question.  I’m just not convinced they will be good enough to defeat any of their last three opponents… Rhinos, Bears and Lionz… a rather fierce collection of wild animals that the Heat will have to be blazing to cook.  Brian Simmons and Dannon Handcuff have really stepped out and shown they are legitimate stars, and for a while, I was thinking that Reggie McLucas had what it takes to lead this team to the playoffs, however, with 6 interceptions against no touchdown passes, I’m not quite as convinced any more.  The Heat still have the potential to create some excitement around the league and give any one of their final opponents a “run for their money”, however, there may just not be enough bullets in the chamber for the Heat to figure into the playoff mix in the end.  It may only take 3 wins to get into the 6 team field, however, that alone would be a difficult task for any of the other playoff contenders, much less a team with quarterback issues.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 2-7

 

MADISON LIONZ (4-2): B+

Although, I figured they’d be even money to pull off a victory over the Rhino-Raiders at home, and the did also lose to the Mustangs at home, I’m still liking the Lionz position right now vis a vis where I projected them to be at this point pre-season.   I figured there would likely be two losses, and there has been.  There is no shame in losing to either the Mustangs or Rhino-Raiders, even at home.  They have certainly proven to have the best offense in the RMFL, bar none; and their defense is improving every week.  The Lionz have been welcoming back into the fold key players steadily over the past few weeks right up until the final add deadline last week and most of those players will make a difference on the defense.  Troy Dougherty seems headed for at least another passing title and this time, he seems to be spraying the ball around to an even larger group of receivers.  Although the Lionz lead the league in passing yards, they don’t have a receiver ranked higher than 10th of the receivers.  This team becomes VERY dangerous when you have a great quarterback and you have no idea of the 5 eligible players who he might throw to.  This is a dangerous team that will be there in the end.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD:  7-2

 

CACHE VALLEY BEARS (5-1): B

Obviously, the only reason the Bears draw a “B” mark is that I had pre-ranked them as #1 (blast the ‘ol Neumeier curve!).  By all accounts, the Bears have excelled at every front, particularly as a first year team.   Sitting well with a 5-1 record and three teams with losing records remaining on their schedule, the Bears should not have to struggle much to finish 8-1 and be in position to host any playoff game that does not involve the Ogden Rhino-Raiders.  Their impressive victory over the Mustangs even came with two of their best defensive linemen serving a one-game suspension.  If they can keep their best players on the field through the season, they have only themselves that can stop themselves from a potential re-match in the RMFL championship against arch-rival, Ogden.  Ryan Harris is having a solid season at quarterback and he has been able to spread the rock around among weapons, Anthony Stewart, Norvel Young, Justin Oswald and Fine Unga.  The Bears defense, however, has not yet proven as strong as the Rhinos and the Bears offense has needed a shot in the arm at times.  If the defense can play up to their potential and the offense can make better use of Stewart and Young down the stretch, I’ll stick to my “Team to beat” label.  I’m just not sure if all of that will happen… when it needs to.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 8-1

 

BOISE ROUGHRIDERS (3-3): B-

So far… not so bad, for the Boise Roughriders.  More than halfway through the season and they are only a game out of first place.  They have to be thinking that they have every reason to believe they can…and will win out and finish 6-3 and maybe win the division.  They have beaten the Matadors twice and Idaho Falls at home.  Of course, it is the Mustangs victory at home that was the most impressive.  In my pre-rankings, I suggested that I’d be surprised if Western Idaho got any wins at all against eastern Idaho… and there have been two already; the Matadors over the Predators and the Roughriders over the Mustangs.  Its been a good start and a solid grade for the Roughriders, but there are still too many things that concern me that have me thinking they may not win another game. Brian Stogsdill, whom I have previously regarded as a “Streaky” quarterback who has as many hot days as cold… has had an inordinate share of cold days and now his qb rating is below 50.  Back-up, Paul Dovel may be the answer, but quarterback changes this late can be a bit unsettling to a team.  Further, they have no real high ranking receivers nor running backs… and they have a very big and talented offensive line… so go figure?   Defensively, they are still solid.  Zac Jockumsen is back and is back on top of the league tackling charts, however, defensively, they currently ranked 7th and will have to improve on that if they are to really make a playoff push. They finish with Idaho Falls (who they’ve already beat) and a 1-5 Nemesis team on the road and a struggling 2-4 Predator team at home.  A Boise optimist is thinking 6-3… I love these Roughriders, but…

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 3-6

 

IDAHO MATADORS (1-5): C+

You cannot grade the Matadors too low, despite their struggles, because they were expected to struggle some.  The Matadors were projected 9th in the AAA and currently are headed for a 10th place finish.  Before the wheels starting coming off in so many ways for the Matadors, they were able to pull off the big upset at home over the Predators, potentially ruining their big season.  At full strength, this was going to be a pretty solid team.  Since that time, however, they have had some serious quitting on the team problems that no organization could smoothly overcome.  They have vowed to compete to the end this year, however, after spending the first 7 weeks of the season never having to leave the Boise area, they will actually have to travel, something every other team has done plenty of already, the final three games of the season.  This will be the real true test of metal and the love of the game for the remaining team. A team that will set up well for AA competition in 2007.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 1-8

 

SALT LAKE NEMESIS (1-5): C

Probably the biggest game of the season for this under-performing team will be the June 3rd date with the Utah Wolverines.   Unless they are planning on upsetting the Cache Valley Bears on June 10th, they will have to win two of their next 3 games to have a playoff shot and the Wolverines will have to be one of them. In the pre-season projections, the Nemesis are not that far off of what I had projected.  I had them beating the Heat, however, a game they dropped by the score of 26-22 really hurt them. I figured on a split with the Wolverines, however, a split now would be disastrous as it would put them in a position that they would have to win both of their final two games… just to have a chance. They did win the first meeting with the Wolverines, a game, you might recall, ended in a last second drive that required a comedy of errors, calls and key plays to even have a chance for a Nate Cone extra point to win it; a game that had the Wolverines’ kicker been in attendance at, could have been over even before the last second drive. Statistically, the Nemesis have done better than their record; ranked 6th of 10 teams in both defense and offense should have them in prime playoff contention… considering 6 teams get in.  However, the Nemesis lost close… and winnable games to both the Pocatello Predators and the Heat which would have changed their fortunes dramatically.  Losing big to both the Rhinos and Bears is only par for the course, since so have all of the other co-contenders for the last playoff spots.  Quarterback, Nate Cone, may not be the “worst quarterback in the league by the stats”, but if they are to beat the Wolverines and either the Bears and/or the Roughriders will have to cut down on critical errors (11 interceptions thus far).  Marvell Smith will have to play like Marvell Smith and Ryan Lang may have to take a little bigger role.  Harold Regin may be required to turn one or more of his patented big plays on defense and if, if, if…. I’m excited that I will likely be in attendance at the June 3rd tilt with the Wolverines’ that may turn out to be the best game of the year.  .

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 2-7

 

UTAH WOLVERINES (2-4): C

Early in the season, I predicted it would be a coin toss on who would make the playoffs between the Nemesis and Wolverines; after what happened in the incredible first meeting of these two teams, I’m not at all ready to recant that possibility.  Regardless, with the Ogden and Cache Valley on the docket after the Nemesis, the Wolverines, too must be treating the next game with the Nemesis as a must win situation… and then hope for the Nemesis to beat the Roughriders in the final week….and if, if, if, for them as well.   Losing the first Nemesis game was the real “kicker” (pardon the pun) for the Wolverines’ playoff hopes in 2006. If they hold on to win that one, they are sitting at 3-3 right now where a win versus the Nemesis would all but clinch a playoff berth.  Now they will likely require the win and either a win over one or both of the Rhinos and Bears (which is truly possible) or some other things to happen.  I’m sure the Wolverines will be wanting to take care of business on their own.  The tough loss IN IDAHO FALLS showed just what this team has.  In the last game with the Heat, the Wolverines saw three stars step to the forfront  that might just help their offense make the final push.  Quarterback, TJ Stokes showed the league something against a tough Heat defense, Tavita Makalo showed he can be a weapon out of the backfield and James Neslen showed what everyone already knew, he can score from anywhere… at any time.  Matt Shoda continues to lead a staunch defense which will be tested by the Nemesis, Bears and Rhino-Raiders down the homestretch.  I’ll toss the coin the Wolverines way on the June 3rd tilt, however, I’ll field no bets on the next two games...

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 3-6

 

 POCATELLO PREDATORS (2-4): C-

My pre-season “Most Improved team”… and number #3 overall pre-ranked team has really fallen on some hard times… and yet, I’m still not ready to give them a standing 8 count.  They drop to this position based mostly on pre-season expectations.  Offensively, they seem to have finally put another quality offensive line in front of Jeff Belnap, another great receiver along with Brock Gunter, in fact, they have a ton of great receivers!  Tyler Wheatley returned to the backfield to the scene of his 2001 heyday and the defense filled some needed holes with size, speed and experience. On paper, this team looked GREAT!   Well, they still do.  They draw the low grade because of under achieving and losing to the Matadors, of all teams.  Sure it was a tough road game when the Matadors had a full team, no question about that, but this team was supposed to be good enough to fight through those situations.  No one should be embarrassed at losing to Madison or Idaho Falls.  If they could have the Matador game back, they would at least be 3-3 right now, with every thought of finishing at least 5-4 and maybe give the Rhino-Raiders a run for their money.  If the Predators are going to compete, however, they will need Jeff Belnap to be Jeff Belnap.  With time to throw… and sometimes even without, he could be argued as the best quarterback in the league, so far, he has not played to that billing.  Brock Gunter has yet to be Brock Gunter and Tyler Wheatley has yet to dominate any game.  Kelly Nebeker, transferring from the Bulldawgs has been the offenses biggest star thus far.  Defensively, the team has been fairly solid…in all the non-Madison games.  However, with star defensive back, Troy Sutton,  hurt, will this team be able to keep top passing offenses in check.  Fortunately, they only have one top passing offense left on the schedule; with the Rhino-Raiders in a week and a half.  Sutton will be back soon enough, however, with only 6 defensive sacks as a team all season, they will HAVE to get more pressure on opposing quarterbacks if they are to really make a playoff push… or scare anyone once there.

PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 4-5